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Global Carrier Capex
QUARTERLY
Updated Outlook
This note sets forth our outlook for communications infrastructure suppliers that
derive significant revenues from communication service providers based on our
analysis of global carrier capital expenditures broken down by wireline and wireless
technology markets and by developed and emerging geographic markets. While
ours is not the only capex model, we believe our model is differentiated in three
significant respects: it is comprehensive, tracking over 150 service providers
throughout the world; it is detailed, with quarterly and annual regional,
developed/emerging and wireline/wireless market breakdowns; and it is objective, in
that it is based on the forecasts of the carriers themselves. In addition, we track and
analyze service provider capital expenditures over near, intermediate and longerterm
time horizons.
Our key take-aways are as follows:
• The outlook for capital expenditures by carriers--and therefore for revenue
growth for carrier-focused communications equipment suppliers—continues
to best be characterized as a shifting rather than rising tide given the
projected deceleration in carrier capex growth rates for aggregate global,
developed, emerging, wireline and wireless markets. This general growth
outlook applies to near, intermediate and longer-term trends.
• Certain carrier product markets should continue to post significantly higher
growth relative to the aggregate capex growth rates. These markets are
routers and Ethernet switches, Voice over IP platforms, next-generation
optical infrastructure, and FTTX (Fiber-to-the-X) broadband access
systems.
• We believe that one or more major carriers will reduce their planned capital
expenditures for the balance of calendar 2008. We are most concerned
regarding AT&T, which accounts for 28% of aggregate U.S. capital
expenditures and 7% of aggregate global capital expenditures. Given our
recent industry checks, we believe a meaningful reduction in planned
capex is likely. Virtually every supplier to carriers of communications
equipment has exposure to AT&T. A number of suppliers have significant
exposure in terms of both absolute dollars and percentage of revenue. Nor
do we believe the risk of capex reductions is limited to AT&T.
• Accordingly, we are reducing our revenue and EPS estimates for the
following suppliers in our coverage universe (see notes published
concurrently with this report): ADCT, ADTN, CIEN, CSCO, JNPR, NT,
OPTM and SONS. In addition, we are reducing our ratings on the following
stocks:
o ADTN: To Underperform from Neutral.
o ADCT: To Neutral from Outperform.
o CIEN: To Underperform from Outperform.
o CSCO: To Neutral from Outperform.
o OPTM: To Neutral from Outperform.
Table of contents
2008 Outlook Executive Summary 3
Methodology 8
Shifting Rather than Rising Tide 10
2008 Capital Expenditure Outlook: Meaningful Deceleration 10
2Q–4Q CY08 Outlook: Even Worse 11
Long-Term Outlook: More of the Same for 2008-2010 12
Capex to Revenue Ratios 15
Supplier Implications 17
Supplier Exposure 17
AT&T Exposure 21
Carrier CapEx v. Supplier Revenue Outlook--Where Has All the CapEx Gone? 22
Currency Impact on Global CapEx 26
Huawei 28
Shifting Tide 30
Profitability Headwinds: Emerging v. Developed Markets 31
2Q – 4Q CY08 Emerging/Developed Market Capex Outlook 33
Wireline v. Wireless 36
Markets & Technology 40
Carrier Consolidation: CapEx Concentration 44
Regional Capex Analysis 46
United States 46
Europe 50
China 53
Japan 54
Asia-Pacific 56
India 59
Latin America 61
Korea 63
Canada 65
Middle East 67
Africa 69
Scandinavia 71
Russia 73
Detailed Carrier Capital Expenditure 75
Detailed Carrier Capex QoQ Growth 79
Detailed Carrier Capex YoY Growth 85
Detailed Carrier Capex Seasonality 91
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