欧洲一体化石油加工行业研究报告2008年4月

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Key Messages
Earnings upgrades leave the European integrated oil majors trading at their lowest
PE multiples for 20 years with EV/NCI multiples falling to levels last seen in the
mid-1990s. NAV models all highlight value and notably so at Shell.
Momentum in hydrocarbon price realisations (+50%) looks set to drive a 21%
uplift in Q1 US$ EPS while marking Q2 to market suggests Q2 EPS over 35%
ahead.
Strong Asian demand for LNG continues with recent long term contracts signed at
prices approximating crude oil parity. US imports collapse while Japanese buyers
look set to accede to the new pricing paradigm.
Refining – Run cuts, maintenance and outages drive traditional seasonal rally with
Q2 margins recovering after an abysmal Q1. Sustainability remains in question.
Main recommendations
BG Group: Higher than expected diversions from the US into a robust Asian
market suggest a stellar Q1 2008 in BG’s LNG division. Together with upstream
growth and exploration potential we retain our Buy and 1350p target.
Total: Upstream volume growth from the production of higher margin barrels
should drive a strong improvement in upstream income. With additional projects
due on-stream and existing projects ramping up, visibility around the positive profit
trend remains strong throughout ’08. Buy with a

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