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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月沙特电信行业研究报告
【作者】：AL RAJHI Capital
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Saudi Telecoms Sector: We prefer jam today The Saudi telecoms market is still booming: we expect 3.5G data to help drive mobile penetration towards 220% within five years. There are risks, but it is too early to prepare for a slowdown. STC’s foreign investments thus seem a distraction, even if they may bear fruit in the long run. We prefer Mobily, which is the leader in mobile data and is delivering strong growth. Zain is performing well for a no.3 player, but is hobbled by excessive debt. Saudi telecoms market: attractive overall. From a top-down perspective, the Saudi telecoms market is attractive. The country benefits from a young and fast growing population and from high GDP/capita. The mobile market, which accounts for 74% of the total, is growing fast and is also relatively concentrated. Mobile market: data can drive growth further. We expect mobile broadband to help drive mobile penetration in Saudi Arabia towards 220% within five years. We think mobile broadband will fuel incremental growth, rather than replace existing voice revenues; however, it may threaten fixed-line DSL. In our core scenario mobile ARPU only declines modestly, but with RPM high by the standards of emerging markets there is a risk of sharper price falls. New opportunities: don’t be distracted. Comparisons with historical overseas investment plans in the telecoms sector cast doubt on several aspects of STC‘s expansion strategy. STC‘s investments may boost growth in the future, but right now we think it has lost its way at home. Mobily is proving the near-term winner in Saudi telecoms; Zain is growing fast but remains in clear third place.
Stock conclusions. STC is inexpensive and its financial stability and dividend yield of 6.5% offer support; however, it lacks catalysts for performance. We rate STC Neutral and set a price target of SAR46.4. Mobily offers strong near-term growth and is not expensive for a fast-growing operator on a PE of 9.3x. We rate Mobily Overweight and set a target price of SAR64.9, implying 39% upside potential. With net debt 2.4x 2010 sales, we think fair value for Zain is more than 20% below the current price and rate it Underweight.
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