英国软件服务业研究报告2008年4月

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Sector review
We do not believe that investors will start to buy for a recovery before the
(partially-priced-in) downturn in earnings has even really begun. Only a very
short, sharp shock and instant rebound, or the total absence of a downturn,
would allow us a positive stance at this time. Trough valuations, however,
preclude an underweight stance. The only bright spot seems to be the
recurrent M&A theme, from which we draw some stock-specific conclusions.
Key recommendations
SDL *† Buy
Anite Group Buy
􀂄 Our two key recommendations are SDL*†, a core strategic play, and Anite,
a special situation. We make two recommendation changes, moving Anite
to Buy (from Hold) and downgrade Computacenter to Sell (from Hold).
􀂃 SDL has, through a series of acquisitions, built a demonstrably unique
position within the market for Global Information Management. Investors
continue, we believe wrongly, to focus on the short term risks rather than
the longer term strategic potential. We re-iterate our Buy and 358p target.
􀂃 We have upgraded Anite to a Buy, for the first time ever. While the group
may well suffer further bad news on current trading, we feel that any such
shortfall will lead to immediate, and effective, pressure for the realisation of
the sum-of-the-parts valuation, probably through piecemeal disposals.
Even our cautious SOTP values the group at 47p.
􀂄 Key issues – We focus on macro trends, forecast risk/valuation analysis and
M&A. US and UK macro data point towards a reduction in IT investment.
Recruitment stats signal a loosening IT labour market. We do not foresee
severe cutbacks as in 2001/02, but some IT spend slowdown does appear
inevitable.
􀂄 M & A – This seems to be the only bright spot; activity has picked up recently
from what was already a consistent trend throughout 2007. Even a modest level
of these funds recycling back to the sector should be stock-supportive. M&A
has centred on companies with underpinned sales, strong domain presence and
software/IP ownership, supported by a large and entrenched customer base.
􀂄 Valuations – Despite the rally since January, the UK Software and IT Service
sector is still currently trading close to trough PER valuation levels with some
forecast cuts appearing to be already discounted. Our analysis focuses on
stock-specific valuations versus potential forecast cuts (or increases) assuming
that we move into a material, but not severe, IT spend downturn. This analysis
highlights those stocks where we see the most and least value.
􀂄 Catalysts – We expect catalysts to be largely macro driven, with sentiment
surrounding key economic releases likely to dictate stock price movement in the
current environment. Bellwether commentary will also continue to impact.

Contents
Key recommendations 3
Valuation table 4
Our view 5
Recent newsflow 5
Key issues – Macro, Valuations and M&A 6
Macro Outlook – Remain Cautious 7
Forecast risk and stock valuation analysis 10
M&A – The only bright spot? 13
Company financials 15
Alphameric*† 16
Alterian*† 18
Anite Group 20
AVEVA 22
Civica 24
Computacenter 26
Datatec* 28
Detica Group 30
Dimension Data* 32
Innovation Group 34
ITIS Holdings*† 36
Kewill*† 38
Kofax 40
LogicaCMG 42
Microgen*† 44
Misys 46
Monitise*† 48
Morse*† 50
NCC Group 52
Phoenix IT Group 54
RCG*† 56
Redstone*† 58
RM 60
Sage Group 62
SDL*† 64
Vislink*† 66

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