美国钢铁行业研究报告2008年4月

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...THE NUMBERS that is
After unprecedented steel price increases in early 2008, we expect the market
focus will turn from euphoria about theses gains to earnings growth. We all have
our EPS Leverage models but cost increases in the industry have also been
recordbreaking for 2008. We favor integrated steelmakers and our focus Buys are
X, MT, SID and USIM5.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Industry Analysis
Top picks
US Steel (X.N),USD143.89 Buy
Arcelor-Mittal (MT.N),USD83.41 Buy
Usiminas (USIM5.SA),BRL103.29 Buy
CSN (SID.N),USD39.85 Buy
Companies featured
AK Steel (AKS.N),USD64.88 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 3.36 5.15 5.45
P/E (x) 10.3 12.6 11.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.6 5.8 5.1
Gerdau (GGB.N),USD35.01 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (BRL) 4.24 5.84 7.21
P/E (x) 10.6 10.1 8.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 7.1 5.8
Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA.N),USD14.94 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.55 1.63 1.68
P/E (x) 8.0 9.2 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 6.1 5.7
Arcelor-Mittal (MT.N),USD83.41 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 7.40 10.25 11.35
P/E (x) 8.3 8.1 7.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 5.3 4.5
Arcelor-Mittal (MTP.PA),EUR52.52 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 7.40 10.25 11.35
P/E (x) 8.3 8.1 7.3
EV/EBITA (x) 7.2 6.4 5.4
Nucor (NUE.N),USD68.11 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 4.94 6.00 6.30
P/E (x) 12.1 11.4 10.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 6.1 5.5
CSN (SID.N),USD39.85 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (BRL) 2.99 4.93 7.09
P/E (x) 11.8 13.6 9.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 8.0 6.0
Ternium (TX.N),USD33.52 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 4.10 4.93 4.93
P/E (x) 7.4 6.8 6.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 3.5 3.2
Usiminas (USIM5.SA),BRL103.29 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (BRL) 9.62 10.99 12.62
P/E (x) 7.5 9.4 8.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 5.8 5.3
US Steel (X.N),USD143.89 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 8.68 16.00 16.31
P/E (x) 11.4 9.0 8.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 5.6 5.0
Global Markets Research Company
Is $1,000 HRC here to stay?
The benchmark steel price has recently eclipsed $1,000 per tonne in the U.S. We
expect the pace of increases to slow and DB's been more conservative with its
forecasts, but we believe higher prices are sustainable given lean global
inventories, elevated mill operating rates, limited supply growth and rising costs.
DB's revised outlook for benchmark steel prices in the U.S. are $911/tonne
(+56%) and $961/tonne (+6%) and in Europe are $930/tonne (+40%) and
$981/tonne (+6%) in 2008 and 2009, respectively. We prefer U.S. exposure.
2008 remains a 'margin' story; valuations attractive
Estimate revisions average +12% in 2008 and +18% in 2009 for our coverage, and
we continue to favor those with less cost exposure in the short-to-medium term.
We continue to expect that scrap costs will pressure mini-mill producers. Our
steel coverage trades at average PE and EV/EBITDA multiples of 10.5x and 6.3x on
our 2008 estimates, respectively. These same metrics are 9.3x and 5.7x for 2009
which we believe investors will begin to focus on in the coming months.
Top picks remains U.S. Steel (X) and Arcelor-Mittal (MT)
X and MT have attractive valuations and are well positioned to benefit from higher
steel prices. For X, our PT remains $165 but our estimates are increased to $16.00
(+26%) and $16.31 (+25%) for '08 and '09. Meanwhile, we have raised our MT PT
to $105 (from $90) and our '08 and '09 estimates to $10.25 (+18%) and $11.35
(+19%), respectively. Our ’08 estimates are 25-30% above consensus.
Feeling better about Brazil
Uncertainties have declined with recent coal settlements and our concerns about
costs have eased with the 'spike' in global steel prices. Since our last update, our
estimate of industry cost increases in ’08 have risen to $194 per tonne from $137
per tonne but our benchmark U.S. HRC increase has risen more - to $326 to $160.
The Brazilian industry is now challenged to push prices higher to reflect global
trends (note that CSN and MT announced price increases today in Brazil).
Upgrading SID and USIM5 to Buy from Hold
On SID, our PT goes to $49 (from $43) which equals 12x and 7x our ’09 EPS and
EBITDA forecasts. Our PT for USIM5 is increased to $124 (from $105) which
translates to 10x and 6x our ’09 EPS and EBITDA estimates.
Key risks include global economic growth that does not meet expectations, lowerthan-
expected metal prices that may result, raw material and other operating costs
that may limit earnings growth, expansion projects that do not progress as
expected, and foreign exchange rates that do not match DB forecasts.

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Industry update ................................................................................. 5
The global picture......................................................................................................................5
Key themes in 2008 ..................................................................................................................7
U.S. update .............................................................................................................................10
Brazilian update.......................................................................................................................14
China update ...........................................................................................................................16
AK Steel............................................................................................ 19
Financial Update......................................................................................................................19
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................20
ArcelorMittal .................................................................................... 22
Financial Update......................................................................................................................22
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................23
CSN................................................................................................... 26
Recent developments.............................................................................................................26
Financial update ......................................................................................................................26
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................27
Gerdau Ameristeel........................................................................... 30
Financial update ......................................................................................................................30
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................31
Gerdau SA........................................................................................ 33
Recent developments.............................................................................................................33
Financial update ......................................................................................................................33
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................34
Nucor ................................................................................................ 36
Recent developments.............................................................................................................36
Financial update ......................................................................................................................36
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................37
Ternium ............................................................................................ 39
Financial update ......................................................................................................................39
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................40
Usiminas........................................................................................... 42
Recent developments.............................................................................................................42
Financial update ......................................................................................................................42
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................43
US Steel............................................................................................ 45
Financial update ......................................................................................................................45
Valuation and our view on the stock .......................................................................................46

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