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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月日本钢铁行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
blastfurnace
steel sector. We have been bullish on the sector in anticipation of a
cyclical rebound following the steep production decline in 1H 2009.
Production at blast-furnace companies across-the-board has recovered to
around 90% of historical peak levels, and we maintain our bullish stance in
view of such factors as production levels likely remaining high in 2010 and
anticipated growth in global steel prices underpinned by a favorable
supply/demand balance in China.
• Earnings recovering from a major bottom; our core pick is Sumitomo
Metal Industries: Our core blast-furnace recommendation is Sumitomo Metal
Industries. Demand for its mainstay seamless pipe is recovering at a slower
pace than that for thin steel sheet, but we believe the business is already
emerging from a bottom. The current rise in natural gas and petroleum prices
is also prompting a favorable change in the development mindset of users,
which in turn should help boost demand for seamless pipe. We rate Sumitomo
Metal Industries Overweight from the standpoint that its earnings are
recovering from a major bottom.
• Anticipate continued uptrend in steel prices; volumes should also remain
at a high level: Our China steel team expects steel demand to remain balanced
throughout the year and anticipates limited downward pressure on steel prices
from Chinese steel shipments via the Asian market. Furthermore, we expect
price increases for iron ore and other raw materials to be progressively passed
onto customers, and thus anticipate a gradual rise in Chinese steel prices
throughout the year. While there are also moves in Korea to expand
production capacity, we believe increased exports to other regions should also
underpin continued high export levels for Japanese blast-furnace companies in
FY2010.
• We look for accelerated expansion of steel supply infrastructure in
emerging nations over the medium term: We expect major steel customers
such as the automotive and electronics industries to continue moving
production offshore and thus look for blast-furnace companies to also increase
their presence in emerging nations by correspondingly expanding their steel
supply infrastructure. Blast-furnace companies are beginning to steer towards
expanding their overseas strategies, and we would look for further growth
strategies to be hammered out once we begin to see concrete results emerging
from these developments.
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