Hardcover: 838 pages
Publisher: WileyBlackwell (2 Sep 2003)
Language English
Synopsis
This text offers business managers and business school students an excellent practical explanation of the short-term linkages that impact the performance of the overall economy. While the underlying theoretical constructs are not ignored, emphasis is placed on the empirical underpinnings and managerial implications of macroeconomics. The text begins by introducing key concepts such as the GDP, National and Personal Income, and the various measures of inflation and unemployment. Building on this foundation it then analyzes the following aspects of macroeconomics: aggregate supply and demand, international financial markets, cyclical fluctuations, policy analysis, and forecasting.Engaging the reader through many features, the text includes detailed case studies and 'Manager's Briefcase' discussions, which provide practical applications of macroeconomic concepts to real-world situations. Additionally, each chapter ends with a list of key concepts, a chapter summary, and practice questions. Its short-term, empirically oriented approach makes this text a distinctive and practical resource for better understanding macroeconomics.
Contents
Preface and Acknowledgments xv
Part I: Introductory Concepts 1
Chapter 1: The Importance of Macroeconomics 3
Introduction 3
1.1 What is Macroeconomics? 5
1.2 Links Between Macroeconomics and Microeconomics 8
1.3 Current Core of Macroeconomic Theory 10
1.4 Macroeconomics – an Empirical Discipline 11
1.5 The Importance of Policy Applications 13
1.6 Positive and Normative Economics: Why Macroeconomists
Disagree 14
1.7 Roadmap of this Book 17
Key Terms and Concepts 19
Summary 19
Questions and Problems 20
Appendix: Thumbnail Sketch of the Development of Macroeconomics 22
Notes 27
Chapter 2: National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) 28
Introduction 28
2.1 How the National Income and Product Accounts are
Constructed 28
2.2 Components of GDP: Final Goods and Services 30
2.3 Differences Between Final and Intermediate Goods and Services 36
2.4 Components of National Income 37
2.5 Balancing Items Linking GDP, NI, PI, and DI 46
vi CONTENTS
2.6 Value Added by Stages of Production: An Example 51
2.7 Inclusions and Exclusions in the NIPA Data 52
2.8 Circular Flow Between Aggregate Demand and Production 56
Key Terms and Concepts 57
Summary 58
Questions and Problems 59
Appendix: Key Macroeconomic Identities 62
Notes 63
Chapter 3: Key Data Concepts: Inflation, Unemployment, and
Labor Costs 65
Introduction 65
3.1 Measuring Inflation: Three Different Types of Indexes 65
3.2 Factors Causing the Inflation Rate to be Overstated 68
3.3 Could the Inflation Rate be Understated? 75
3.4 Different Measures of Unemployment 78
3.5 Collecting the Employment and Unemployment Data 80
3.6 The Concept of Full Employment 86
3.7 Unit Labor Costs 91
3.8 Summarizing the Economic Data: Indexes of Leading and
Coincident Indicators 96
3.9 Methods and Flaws of Seasonally Adjusted Data 97
3.10 Preliminary and Revised Data 99
Key Terms and Concepts 100
Summary 100
Questions and Problems 101
Notes 104
Part II: Aggregate Demand and Joint Determination of Output and Interest Rates 105
Chapter 4: The Consumption Function 107
Introduction 107
4.1 Principal Determinants of Consumption 108
4.2 Short-Term Links Between Consumption and
Disposable Income: The Marginal Propensity to Consume 111
4.3 Long-Term Links Between Consumption and Income:
The Permanent Income Hypothesis 114
4.4 Consumer Spending and Changes in Tax Rates 115
4.5 Importance of Cost and Availability of Credit in
the Consumption Function 119
4.6 Consumption, Housing Prices, and Mortgage Rates 122
CONTENTS vii
4.7 Other Links Between Consumer Spending, the Rate of Interest,
and the Rate of Return 124
4.8 Credit Availability and the Stock of Debt 126
4.9 The Role of Demographic Factors and the Life Cycle Hypothesis 129
4.10 The Relationship Between Consumption and Household
NetWorth 130
4.11 The Effect of Changes in Consumer Confidence 135
4.12 Review 137
Key Terms and Concepts 138
Summary 138
Questions and Problems 139
Appendix: Historical Development of the Consumption Function 141
Notes 149
Chapter 5: Investment and Saving 151
Introduction 151
5.1 The Equivalence of Investment and Saving 151
5.2 Long-Term Determinants of Capital Spending 153
5.3 The Basic Investment Decision 155
5.4 The Cost of Capital 157
5.5 The Availability of Credit 159
5.6 The Role of Expectations 162
5.7 Lags in the Investment Function 163
5.8 The Effect of Changes in Tax Policy on Capital Spending
Decisions 164
5.9 Determinants of Exports and Imports 173
5.10 The Role of Government Saving 182
5.11 Recap: Why Investment Always Equals Saving on
an Ex Post Basis 183
Key Terms and Concepts 184
Summary 184
Questions and Problems 185
Appendix: The Theory of Optimal Capital Accumulation 187
Notes 194
Chapter 6: Determination of Interest Rates and Introduction to
Monetary Policy 195
Introduction 195
6.1 Definitions of Key Interest Rates and Yield Spreads 197
6.2 The Role of Monetary Policy 202
6.3 The Federal Reserve System 204
6.4 Determination of the Federal Funds Rate 206
6.5 Effect of Federal Reserve Policy on the Availability of Credit 212
viii CONTENTS
6.6 Determinants of Long-Term Interest Rates 213
6.7 The Difference Between Changes in Monetary Conditions and
Monetary Policy 216
6.8 Factors Causing the Yield Spread to Fluctuate 217
6.9 Transmission of Monetary Policy 221
6.10 The Importance of the Yield Spread as a Predictive Tool 224
6.11 Why Targeting Interest Rates Doesn’t Always Work:
The Conundrum 227
Key Terms and Concepts 228
Summary 229
Questions and Problems 230
Notes 232
Chapter 7: Joint Determination of Income and Interest Rates:
The IS/LM Diagram 234
Introduction 234
7.1 Review of the Effect of Changes in Interest Rates and
Income on Saving and Investment 235
7.2 Equilibrium in the Goods Market 237
7.3 Derivation of the IS Curve 238
7.4 Slope of the IS Curve under Varying Economic Conditions 242
7.5 Factors that Shift the IS Curve 242
7.6 The Demand for Money: Liquidity Preference and
Loanable Funds 244
7.7 Equilibrium in the Assets Market: Derivation of the LM Curve 246
7.8 Slope of the LM Curve under Varying Economic Conditions 247
7.9 The IS/LM Diagram and Introduction to Monetary and
Fiscal Policy 250
7.10 The IS/LM Diagram in Booms and Recessions 252
7.11 Factors that Shift the IS and LM Curves 253
7.12 A Numerical Example: Solving for Income and
Interest Rates using the IS/LM Model 254
Key Terms and Concepts 262
Summary 262
Questions and Problems 263
Notes 266
Part III: Aggregate Supply: Inflation, Unemployment, and Productivity 267
Chapter 8: Causes of and Cures for Inflation 269
Introduction 269
8.1 In the Long Run, Inflation is a Monetary Phenomenon 271
CONTENTS ix
8.2 In the Short Run, Inflation is Determined by
Unit Labor Costs: The Price Markup Equation 272
8.3 Monetary Policy and the Role of Expectations 280
8.4 Determinants of Changes in Unit Labor Costs 284
8.5 Malign and Benign Supply Shocks 291
8.6 Lags in DeterminingWages and Prices 295
8.7 The Beginnings and Ends of Hyperinflation 297
8.8 Summary of Why Inflation Remained Low in
the 1990s – and What Might Occur in the Future 300
Key Terms and Concepts 304
Summary 304
Questions and Problems 305
Appendix: Historical Explanations of Inflation: The Rise and
Fall of the Phillips Curve 307
Notes 314
Chapter 9: Why High Unemployment Persists 316
Introduction 316
9.1 The Basic Labor Market Model 317
9.2 Real Growth and Unemployment: Okun’s Law 322
9.3 Why Stimulatory Monetary and Fiscal Policy Might Not
Reduce Unemployment 324
9.4 Theories Based on Labor Market Imperfections: Summary 326
9.5 Sticky Prices and NominalWage Rates 329
9.6 Sticky Real Wage Rates: Efficiency Wages 332
9.7 Sticky Real Wage Rates: Insider/Outsider Relationships 334
9.8 Barriers to Market-Clearing Wages: The MinimumWage 337
9.9 TheWedge Between Private and Social Costs of Labor 348
9.10 High Unemployment Rates and Hysteresis 351
9.11 The Structuralist School 352
Key Terms and Concepts 357
Summary 357
Questions and Problems 358
Notes 361
Chapter 10: Aggregate Supply, the Production Function, and
the Neoclassical Growth Model 363
Introduction 363
10.1 Productivity Growth and the Standard of Living 364
10.2 The Long-Term Historical Growth Record 368
10.3 The Aggregate Production Function and Returns to Scale 372
10.4 The Cobb-Douglas Production Function 373
10.5 Why Growth Differs among Nations: The Importance of
Saving and Investment 374
x CONTENTS
10.6 Other Factors Affecting Growth: The Framework of
Growth Accounting 376
10.7 Causes of Growth in the US Economy 378
10.8 The Worldwide Slowdown in Productivity after 1973 381
10.9 The Neoclassical Growth Model and the Slowdown of
Mature Economies 387
10.10 Endogenous Growth Theory and Convergence Models 388
10.11 Additional Importance of Saving and Investment 392
Key Terms and Concepts 394
Summary 394
Questions and Problems 395
Notes 397
Part IV: The International Economy 399
Chapter 11: Basic Determinants of Exports and Imports 403
11.1 The Balance Between Current and Capital Accounts 403
11.2 Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates 408
11.3 US Exports and Imports: Empirical Review 411
11.4 Income and Price Elasticities of US Exports and Imports 413
11.5 The Repercussion Effect 419
11.6 How Serious is the Burgeoning Trade Deficit? 421
11.7 Recent Progress Toward Free Trade 428
11.8 Arguments For and Against a Trade Deficit 434
11.9 Foreign Purchases of US Assets: A Non-Event 437
Key Terms and Concepts 439
Summary 439
Questions and Problems 441
Appendix: The Theory of Comparative Advantage and
the Modern Theory of International Trade 442
Note 444
Chapter 12: International Financial Markets and
Foreign Exchange Policy 445
Introduction 445
12.1 The World Dollar Standard and Major Trends in
Other Key Currencies 446
12.2 Nominal and Real Exchange Rates 452
12.3 Measuring International Labor Costs 453
12.4 The Concept of Purchasing Power Parity 455
12.5 Factors that Determine Foreign Exchange Rates 460
CONTENTS xi
12.6 Why Foreign Exchange Markets Overshoot Equilibrium:
The J-Curve Effect 470
12.7 Other Factors Causing Currency Rates to
Diverge from Equilibrium 475
12.8 Managed Exchange Rates: Bands and Crawling Pegs 477
12.9 Optimal Trade and Foreign Exchange Rate Policy 481
Key Terms and Concepts 483
Summary 483
Questions and Problems 484
Notes 486
Chapter 13: The Mundell-Fleming Model: Joint Determination of
Output, Interest Rates, Net Exports, and the Value of the Currency 487
13.1 Links Between Domestic and International Saving and
Investment 487
13.2 The Basic Model: Joint Determination of Real Interest Rates,
Output, Currency Value, and the Current Account Balance 489
13.3 The Mundell-Fleming Model for a Small Open Economy 492
13.4 The Repercussion Effect in the Mundell-Fleming Model 494
13.5 The Depreciation Effect in the Mundell-Fleming Model 496
13.6 Shifts in the NX and NFI Curves Caused by
Changes in Inflation and Productivity 499
13.7 Effects of the Reagan and Clinton Fiscal and Monetary Policies 500
13.8 Economic Impact of an Exogenous Change in Net Exports 504
13.9 Short- and Long-Run Effects of an Exogenous Change in
the Value of the Currency 507
Key Terms and Concepts 511
Summary 511
Questions and Problems 513
Notes 516
Chapter 14: Case Studies in International Trade 517
Introduction 517
14.1 International Trade in the European Economy 517
14.2 International Trade in the Asian Economy 527
14.3 International Trade in Latin America 539
14.4 Pros and Cons of Free Trade in an Imperfect World 545
14.5 What Factors Will DetermineWorld Leaders of the
Twenty-First Century? 551
Summary 554
Questions and Problems 555
Note 557
Part V: Cyclical Fluctuations 559
Chapter 15: Business Cycles 561
Introduction 561
15.1 The Long-Term Historical Record 562
15.2 Measuring the Business Cycle: The Indexes of
Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 564
15.3 Cyclical Behavior: Recurring but Not Regular 567
15.4 The Phases of the Business Cycle 572
15.5 The Role of Exogenous Shocks in the Business Cycle 577
15.6 The Role of Technology in the Business Cycle 582
15.7 The Role of Fiscal Policy in the Business Cycle 586
15.8 The Role of Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle 590
15.9 Global Transmission of Business Cycles 593
15.10 Could the Great Depression Happen Again? 594
15.11 Recap: Are Business Cycles Endogenous or Exogenous? 598
Key Terms and Concepts 600
Summary 600
Questions and Problems 601
Notes 602
Chapter 16: Cyclical Fluctuations in Components of
Aggregate Demand 605
Introduction 605
16.1 The Stock Adjustment Principle 606
16.2 Empirical Review: The Components of Capital Spending 608
16.3 The Role of Business Sentiment in Capital Spending 608
16.4 Investment in Residential Construction 612
16.5 The Role of Inventory Investment in the Business Cycle 622
16.6 Inventory Production and Control Mechanisms 627
16.7 Cyclical Patterns in Purchases of Motor Vehicles 629
16.8 Cyclical Patterns in Other Components of Consumption 634
16.9 Recap: What Determines Cyclical Fluctuations in
Aggregate Demand 635
Key Terms and Concepts 637
Summary 637
Questions and Problems 638
Notes 641
Chapter 17: Financial Business Cycles 643
Introduction 643
17.1 Cyclical Patterns of Monetary and Credit Aggregates 644
17.2 Cyclical Patterns in the Yield Spread 647
CONTENTS xiii
17.3 Cyclical Patterns of Stock Market Prices 649
17.4 The Present Discounted Value of Stock Prices and the
Equilibrium Price/Earnings Ratio 653
17.5 Determinants of the Risk Factor 655
17.6 Impact of the Budget Ratio on Bond and Stock Returns 665
17.7 Impact of Changes in the Expected Rate of Inflation on
Bond and Stock Returns 669
17.8 Impact of Changes in Capital Gains Taxes on Stock Prices 670
17.9 Long-Term Performance of Stocks, Bonds, and Liquid Assets 672
17.10 Cyclical Fluctuations in Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and
Liquid Assets 674
17.11 Recap: The Importance of Financial Markets and
Asset Allocation 675
Key Terms and Concepts 676
Summary 676
Questions and Problems 677
Notes 679
Part VI: Policy Analysis and Forecasting 681
Chapter 18: Fiscal Policy and Its Impact on Productivity Growth 683
Introduction 683
18.1 Automatic and Discretionary Stabilizers 684
18.2 Components of the Federal Government Budget 689
18.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of Federal Budget Surpluses
and Deficits 694
18.4 The Concept of the Fiscal Dividend 699
18.5 The Role of Fiscal Policy in Determining Productivity Growth 702
18.6 Simplifying the Tax Code 705
18.7 ‘‘Saving’’ Social Security and Medicare 707
18.8 Recap: Fiscal Policy and Productivity Growth 713
Key Terms and Concepts 715
Summary 715
Questions and Problems 716
Notes 718
Chapter 19: Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Inflation and Growth 719
Introduction 719
19.1 The Overall Goals of Monetary Policy: Insure
Adequate Liquidity, Reduce Business Cycle Fluctuations, and
Keep Inflation Low and Stable 720
19.2 The Negative Effects of Higher Inflation 724
19.3 The Optimal Rate of Inflation is Not Zero 726
xiv CONTENTS
19.4 The Role of Monetary Policy in Financial Crises 730
19.5 Demand-Side Policies: Punchbowls and Preemptive Strikes 733
19.6 Supply-Side Shocks and Sticky Prices and Wages:
How the Fed Should React 736
19.7 Why Targeting Interest Rates Doesn’t Always Work:
The Conundrum Revisited 737
19.8 Budget Deficits and Monetary Policy 738
19.9 Monetary Policy in an Open Economy 740
19.10 Why Higher Inflation Leads to Lower Productivity 741
19.11 Recap: The Case for Active Monetary Policy and
Optimal Policy Rules 743
Key Terms and Concepts 746
Summary 747
Questions and Problems 748
Notes 750
Chapter 20: Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods and Pitfalls 751
Introduction 751
20.1 Sources of Forecasting Error in Econometric Models: Summary 751
20.2 Inadequate and Incorrect Data and the Tendency to Cluster 752
20.3 Examining Exogenous Shocks: Impulse and
Propagation Revisited 756
20.4 Market Reaction to Economic Data 759
20.5 Unknown Lag Structures and the Conservatism Principle 761
20.6 Summary of Noneconometric Forecasting Methods 765
20.7 Naive Models and Consensus Surveys of Macro Forecasts 766
20.8 Using the Index of Leading Economic Indicators to
Predict the Economy 771
20.9 Survey Methods for Individual Sectors 774
20.10 Recap: How Managers Should Use Forecasting Tools 781
Key Terms and Concepts 784
Summary 784
Questions and Problems 785
Notes 787
Bibliography and Further Reading 788
Index 790
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-14 12:01:47编辑过]
发帖
雷达卡
223139.pdf
(4.45 MB, 需要: 26 个论坛币)
jg-xs1
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
