发帖
雷达卡
In this report, we have updated all our
assumptions on the wind market,
including our global market-forecast
model and global market-share model
We have raised our forecasts for the
global wind-power market: our five-year
demand CAGR (2007-12e) increases to
18% from 16%, and our 10-year demand
CAGR (2007-17e) to 16% from 14%. Key
drivers are high demand for renewables,
momentum in the Chinese market, a
strong US market and increased longerterm
political commitment in the EU, the
US and China
The highlights from our updated 2012
market-share forecasts are: we forecast
Vestas will improve its lead as global
market leader over the next five years.
The biggest gainer relative to our
previous forecasts is Gamesa; we
increase its 2012e share by 2.3ppt to
15.0%. The biggest loser relative to our
previous forecasts is Suzlon; we
decrease Suzlon’s 2012e share by 2.3ppt,
mainly because of S88 turbine issues
Our top picks remain Vestas
(Overweight (V)) and Gamesa
(Overweight). We increase our target
prices for Vestas to DKK850 from
DKK675, Gamesa to EUR42 from
EUR40, and for REpower to EUR225
from EUR140. We downgrade REpower
from Overweight (V) to Neutral (V). We
reduce our target price for Suzlon to
INR225 from INR300 and maintain our
Neutral (V) rating. We keep our target
prices for Nordex at EUR28 and upgrade
to Neutral (V) from Underweight (V)
Summary
We increase forecasts for growth in global demand for wind power
to a 10-year CAGR of 18%, from 16%
We see current supply bottlenecks alleviating around 2010,
although, Vestas expects `several years’ of tight supplies
Our favourite stocks remain Vestas, rated Overweight (V), and
Gamesa, rated Overweight. Our least favourite is Suzlon, rated
Neutral (V)
A macro-immune, high-growth
sector
We increase our industry forecasts for
the wind sector
In this report, we have updated all our
assumptions on the wind market, including our
global market- demand model and global marketshare
model. We have upgraded our forecasts for
the global wind- power market: our five-year
demand CAGR (2007-12e) increases to 18% from
16% and our 10-year demand CAGR (2007-17e)
to 16% from 14%. Key drivers are high demand
for renewables because of high oil prices,
momentum in the Chinese market, strong US
market, and increasing political interest and
commitment in the EU, the US and China.
The highlights from our updated 2012 marketshare
forecasts are: we forecast Vestas will
improve its lead as global market leader over the
next five years, after hitting a low point of 20.5%
in 2007; we increase our 2012e market-share
forecast for Vestas by 0.9ppt from 23.1% to
24.0%. The biggest gainer relative to our previous
forecasts is Gamesa; we increase our 2012e
market share forecast for Gamesa by 2.3ppt to
15.0%. The biggest loser relative to our previous
forecasts is Suzlon. As a result of these changes,
we have made changes to some of our forecasts
and target prices (see table below).
Summary and investment
conclusions 5
Valuations 11
Updating our global market
forecast model 13
Updating our global market
share model 19
Clipper 25
Gamesa 29
Nordex 34
REpower 38
Suzlon 42
Vestas 47
Disclosure appendix 52
Disclaimer 55
229046.pdf
(382.19 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
