荷兰国际集团--俄罗斯钢铁行业研究报告2008年6月

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Russian steel
sector update
On a wave of upgrades
Steel & other metals
Ratings and TP (US$)
New TP Old TP Rating
NLMK 64.1 46.6 BUY
MMK 23.4 20.6 BUY
Evraz 131.5 77.9 BUY
SVST 30.9 26.3 BUY
Mechel 55.6 27.4 HOLD
Evraz previously rated HOLD, no changes to
other ratings.
Upsides and 12m returns
Price
(28/5/08, US$)
Upside
(%)
12m return
(%)
NLMK 48.3 32.7 37.3
MMK 16.3 43.6 46.9
Evraz 116 13.4 18.4
SVST 26.2 17.9 22.6
MTL 55.5 0.2 4.8
Upward commodity revisions and earnings upgrades. We raise
our steel and raw material price estimates to reflect robust market conditions
that beat our expectations. We upgrade our 2008-13F benchmark export and
domestic HRC price on average by 34% and 26% respectively, and raise our
iron ore and coal price forecasts. Hence, we upgrade our estimates for all
five Russian steelmakers and expect 2008F earnings to grow 70% on
average.
We see more potential for consensus earnings upgrades, as we
believe the market’s 2009 steel price assumptions may be too conservative.
MMK still the cheapest play. We believe the market’s concerns
regarding MMK’s low vertical integration and inability to pass on cost
increases are overdone. Based on our new estimates of 10% 2008F EPS
growth, the stock trades at 7x 2008F PER compared with the sector’s 9.2x.
NLMK and Evraz join MMK as our top picks. NLMK remains our top
pick: we continue to like its high-quality operations, management record and
sound expansion strategy. We also favour Evraz owing to its local exposure
and value-accretive acquisitions.
The sector remains attractive, despite the big run on steel stocks. We
expect steel prices to remain at elevated levels in 2008-09, due to visible
cost pressures and healthy demand growth.
Although there is a risk of implementation of steel export
duties, our estimates show that these measures are unlikely to have a
visible impact on the industry.
EPS growth (%)
08F/07 09F/08F
NLMK 70 20
MMK 10 15
Evraz 90 25
SVST 55 15
MTL 123 38
Equity Markets
Andrey Litvin
Moscow (7 495) 229 7322
andrey.litvin@ingbank.com
research.ing.com
SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Relative valuation 2008 (x)
PER EV/EBITDA
NLMK 7.8 5.1
MMK 7.0 4.0
Evraz 10.0 5.9
SVST 8.8 4.8
MTL 11.3 6.0
2
Russian steel sector update June 2008
Contents
Sector target price revisions 3
Comparative valuation...............................................................................................6
Risks to our valuation ................................................................................................6
Steel export duties 8
Impact on DCF and target prices ............................................................................10
Earnings and commodity revisions 11
Big earnings upgrades ............................................................................................11
ING versus consensus ............................................................................................11
Steel price revisions ................................................................................................12
Raw material price revisions ...................................................................................14
Steel industry update 16
Global demand is strong .........................................................................................16
Russian growth story to continue ............................................................................16
China: production and exports are slowing .............................................................18
Companies 19
Novolipetsk Steel.....................................................................................................21
Magnitogorsk Steel..................................................................................................29
Evraz Group ............................................................................................................39
Severstal .................................................................................................................51
Mechel.....................................................................................................................59
Disclosures Appendix 72

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