荷兰国际集团--土耳其银行业研究报告2008年6月

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Contents
Turkish Banks Data Monitor 1
Industry trends – growth (%) 2
Growth measures by bank – Mar. 2008 (%) 4
NIM, ROE, ROA, leverage – March 2008 (%) 5
Productivity and cost – March 2008 (YTLm) 7
Capital ratios as at March 2008 (%) 8
Market share – Mar. 2008 – large banks (%) 11
Market share – March 2008 – all (%) 13
Market share gains – Mar. 2008 (YoY, ppt) 14
Investor multiples as at March 2008 (x) 15
Akbank ....................................................................................................................16
Denizbank ...............................................................................................................18
Finansbank..............................................................................................................20
Fortis .......................................................................................................................22
Garanti Bank ...........................................................................................................24
Halkbank .................................................................................................................26
Isbank......................................................................................................................28
Sekerbank ...............................................................................................................30
TEB .........................................................................................................................32
TSKB.......................................................................................................................34
Vakifbank.................................................................................................................36
Yapi Kredi Bank.......................................................................................................38
Disclosures Appendix 40

Profit and loss accounts. Growth in revenues was strong across the board
and margins improved, driven by the lower cost of deposits. Indeed, the cost
of deposits was down 80bp QoQ on average. Among the majors, Isbank
reported the best QoQ improvement in margins (+71bp), followed by
Halkbank (+36bp), Vakifbank (+19bp), Garanti (+13bp), Yapi Kredi (+7bp)
and Akbank (+5bp). Branch openings continued to raise expense ratios. The
P&L provisions as a percentage of assets increased at Akbank and Garanti,
but decreased at Isbank and Yapi Kredi. The March quarter ROEs calculated
on a 12m rolling basis came in slightly below their December levels, except
for Yapi Kredi which posted a marked improvement in its ROE.
Balance sheets. System assets grew 15.8% QoQ, driven mainly by loan
growth. Indeed, loans grew at a rich 17.5%, exceeding deposit growth which
stood at 11.2%, and raising the loans-to-deposits ratio from 77.5% in
December 2007 to 79.8%, a historical high. Fortis, TSKB and Sekerbank lead
in terms of QoQ loan growth, followed by Garanti and Isbank. The banks
have continued to raise capital to meet growth needs. The banks which have
announced capital increases this year include Garanti, Yapi Kredi, TEB and
Sekerbank.
Prospects and recommendation. The 17.5% loan growth between December
and March is quite high, as is the LDR. With interest rates now rising, we
would expect a slowdown in lending. Net interest margins, which have risen in
the two quarters since September – the banks benefited from declining interest
rates as deposits were repriced more quickly than loans – should now stabilise
and fall. We remain neutral weight on banking sector shares in a portfolio
comprising only Turkish assets. Our top picks are Garanti Bank (YTL3.16,
BUY, TP YTL4.58 – adjusted for the split) and TEB (YTL1.21, BUY, TP
YTL2.56). We are not changing our ratings or target prices in this report.

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荷兰国际集团--土耳其银行业研究报告2008年6月
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