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Contents
INTRODUCTION 3
Chapter
1 A SYSTEM IS BORN 7
First venture into the market. The market calls: boardrooms and
chartists. The “circus”. Fundamentals: the “better” they are, the
faster they fall. Textron and Molybdenum. The moment of discovery.
Steady profits in bust and boom.
2 WARRANTS: OPTIONS ON THE FUTURE 15
Rediscovery of the system: Ed Thorp under a tree. What is a
warrant? Get rich quick? The warrant-stock diagram. The two
basic rules relating warrant prices to stock prices. Adjusted warrants
and adjusted exercise price. Reading the financial pages. Checking
the two rules. The warrant-stock law: predictability in the stock
market.
3 SHORT SELLING: PROFITS IN BAD TIMES 33
Short selling. Selling warrants short. Molybdenum warrants and
the avalanche effect.
4 THE BASIC SYSTEM 43
Hedging: high profit with low risk. Changing the mix. Deeper
insight into the basic system. The basic system: preview. An incredible
meeting.
5 THE SYSTEM IN ACTION: $100,000 DOUBLES 51
The Molybdenum story. Moly coda. Bunker-Ramo (Teleregister).
Catskill conference: Sperry Rand.
6 HOW TO USE THE BASIC SYSTEM 71
Identifying the listed warrants. Picking short-sale candidates. Using
the warrant-stock diagram. Which are best? Choosing the mix. How
much protection: Dividing your capital among the candidates. Final
points. Summary of the basic system.
7 FURTHER PROOF: THE HISTORICAL RECORD 91
A simplified mechanical strategy. The potential future for the basic
system. Performance through the 1929 crash.
8 MORE ON WARRANTS AND HEDGING 103
Over-the-counter, regional, and Canadian warrants. What determines
warrant prices? What is a warrant worth? Reverse hedging. Spotting
candidates for reverse hedging.
9 CAN ANYTHING GO WRONG? 127
Short squeezes. 1929 again? Volatile price movements. Extension of
warrant privileges. Banning of short sales. Extensive use of the basic
system.
10 THE GENERAL SYSTEM: THE EVALUATION OF
CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES 141
Scope of convertibles. Convertible bonds. Anatomy of a convertible
bond. Reverse hedging with Collins Radio “warrants.” Picking convertible
bond situations. Best candidates for reverse hedging. Basic
system with latent warrants. The basic system with Dresser Industries
“warrants.” Finding the best basic-system hedges with
convertible bonds. Convertible preferred stocks. Call options. Puts,
calls, and the basic system.
11 DECIPHERING YOUR MONTHLY STATEMENT 169
Your brokerage account. The cash account. The margin account.
The short account. Calculations in a mixed account. Applicability
to the basic system.
12 PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 181
Exploiting a rise in the price of the common. Exploiting a decline
in the price of the common. Diversification? Having several accounts.
Long-term gains.
vi Contents
13 WHY WE ARE SHARING THE SECRET 189
They wouldn’t believe us. I want to do it myself. The threat of
rediscovery.
14 WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS 195
How much can be invested in the basic system? How much can be
invested by the entire system? A general solution for the stock
market.
APPENDIX
A Mathematics of the avalanche effect. 199
B Over-the-counter and Canadian warrants. 200
C Scientific proof that hedging can offer high expected return. 200
D The prediction of warrant prices. 201
E Basic-system hedge performance, 1946-1966. 204
REFERENCES 209
INDEX 213
Contents vii
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