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Contents
Foreword 1
Executive summary 4
Section One Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030 14
Section Two Oil downstream outlook to 2030 126
Footnotes 188
Annexes 192
Section One Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030
Chapter 1 The reference case: key results 17
Main assumptions 17
World primary energy supply 25
Oil demand 32
Oil supply 36
Upstream investment 41
CO2 emissions 43
Comparisons of projections 48
Chapter 2 Demand by sector 53
Transportation sector 53
Other sectors 66
Demand by product 72
Chapter 3 Oil supply 77
Medium-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply 77
Long-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply 80
Non-conventional oil 84
Biofuels 86
OPEC upstream investment activity 91
Chapter 4 Implications of energy policies 93
New US CAFE standards 93
New Renewable Fuels Standard in the US 97
EU Package of Climate Change and Renewable Energy Measures 99
Combined impacts of US and EU energy policies 105
Chapter 5 Investing in a climate of uncertainty 109
Chapter 6 Investment challenges 117
Section Two Oil downstream outlook to 2030
Chapter 7 Medium-term outlook for the reining sector 129
Review and assessment of existing projects 130
Distillation capacity additions 137
Conversion and desulphurization capacity additions 138
Chapter 8 Long-term outlook 147
Distillation capacity 147
Secondary processes 150
Chapter 9 Downstream investment requirements 163
Chapter 10 Oil movements 169
Crude oil 170
Products 174
Tanker capacity 177
Chapter 11 Downstream challenges 181
Footnotes 188
Annex A 192
Abbreviations
Annex B 198
OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM): deinitions of regions
Annex C 206
World Oil Reining Logistic Demand (WORLD) model: deinitions of regions
Annex D 214
Major data sources
236400.pdf
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