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Could Apple outgrow China? Some executives and investors talk as if, as a market, China were inexhaustible. If you could cut through the red tape and get the distribution, you could sell as many cars, pills, insurance policies, widgets or sprockets as you could churn out. So suggesting that any company could be too big for China sounds a bit like John Lennon’s 1966 assertion that The Beatles were bigger than Jesus. | 苹果(Apple)的生产力会超过中国的购买力吗？按照有些高管和投资者的说法，中国仿佛是一个没有止境的市场。只要你能搞定繁文缛节，打通经销渠道，你就可以卖出无限量的汽车、药丸、保单、小器具或飞轮。所以，提出任何公司可能大到超出中国市场的承受力，听起来会有点像约翰•列侬(John Lennon)的1966年那句断言，即披头士(The Beatles)比耶稣更伟大。 |
Apple has not saturated China yet, obviously: Its Chinese sales grew 55 per cent in the quarter reported yesterday, to $16bn. A big number, but it comes to something on the order of 20m iPhones. That’s only one iPhone for every 60 people (come on, guys!). That Apple had $31bn in sales in the US is suggestive of how big China can be. | 苹果显然还没有在中国市场上饱和，在其昨日公布的最新季度财报中，苹果的中国销售额增长55%，至160亿美元。这是一个巨大的数字，但这意味着销售大约2000万部iPhone，相当于平均每60个中国人购买了一部iPhone（加点油啊，弟兄们！）。苹果在美国的销售额为310亿美元，这暗示了中国市场还有多大潜力。 |
It is not, however, as if everyone else in China is waiting in a very long line at the Apple Store in Beijing. Barclays estimates that half the population has a smartphone, and that 390m smartphones were sold in China last year. GDP per capita is about $7,000 (an average iPhone 6 is a shade under $700). Apple is not going to have the penetration in China it has in the US anytime soon. | 然而，情况并不是在中国每个人都会去苹果北京专卖店外面大排长队。巴克莱(Barclays)估计，中国有半数人口拥有一部智能手机，去年中国市场销售了3.9亿部智能手机。中国的人均国内生产总值(GDP)约为7000美元，而一部iPhone 6平均售价略低于700美元。苹果在中国的普及率不会很快达到美国水平。 |
And the competition is vicious. The local contenders Xiaomi, Lenovo, and Huawei are all focused on lower priced phones, but are pushing higher. | 而且当地竞争非常激烈。中国的竞争者小米(Xiaomi)、联想(Lenovo)以及华为(Huawei)都聚焦于价格较低的手机，但都在向高端手机进军。 |
But it may be a mistake to think too much about growth when assessing Apple’s prospects. The key concept, instead, might be recurring revenue. | 但在评估苹果的前景时，过度看重增长可能是个错误，经常性收入可能才是关键概念。 |
Apple’s most striking financial feature is its ability to maintain prices. Consumer electronics prices are almost universally deflationary. But by adding features and marketing intelligently, it has kept iPhone prices high. The average iPhone sold for in the last quarter — seven years after its launch — was $687, the highest ever. | 苹果在财务上最显著的特点，是其维持价格的能力。消费电子产品的价格几乎普遍在下降。但通过增加功能和采取明智的营销策略，苹果保持住了iPhone的高价位。上一季度iPhone——进入市场7年后——平均售价为687美元，创下历史新高。 |
Analysts at Canalys estimate that Apple’s iPhones outsold all other brands in China in the three months to December for the first time — a remarkable recovery from sales that had ranked in seventh place in the previous quarter. That may not last. But as long as Apple is dominating the top end of the Chinese market, and those customers become hooked on its suite of apps and services, the model is working. Apple’s growth last quarter — in China and elsewhere — will not be sustained. But with the pricing to support 40 per cent gross margins, that may not matter much to the stock. | Canalys的分析师估计，截至去年12月的三个月里，苹果iPhone在中国的销量超过了其他所有品牌，这是一次显著的复苏，其销量在此前一个季度曾跌到第7位。这一局面可能不会持久。但只要苹果主导着中国的高端市场，而那些顾客们变得依赖苹果的应用和服务套装，苹果的模式就会一直奏效。苹果在上一季的增长——包括中国和其他地方——也许不会持续。但通过将定价维持在支持40%毛利率的水平，其股价可能不会受到太大影响。 |
| Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析 |
| 译者/彩云 |
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