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Summary
HSBC’s global chemicals monthly provides data relating to planned and
unplanned outages, timing of new plant start-ups, various commodity
chemical pricing settlements, feedstock costs and product margins, global
chemical trade and inventory data capacity utilization for a variety of
commodity chemical products, and global chemical company valuations.
Perhaps most notable in August was the easing of energy prices from
inflated second-quarter levels, with the crude oil price declining 8.8%
since July and the natural gas price falling 13%. On the product side, we
saw capacity outages of 6.2% of global pure terephthalic acid (PTA) and
11.7% of global monoethylene glycol (MEG) as the result of producers’
citing poor product economics and margins. We believe that weak PTA
and MEG could bode well for PET and polyester producers, such as the
Taiwan producer Nan Ya Plastics. Additionally in August, we saw across
the board margin gains, which were a result of very strong product price
increases and lower raw-material expenses. Although margins opened up
during the month, it remains to be seen whether these price increases will
stick, given the current raw-material price environment and visibly
declining supply/demand fundamentals. Ultimately, if the August trend
continues, we believe that we could see strong Q3 earnings performance.
As far as global valuations go, European chemical companies continue to
be both cheapest on an EV/EBITDA basis and more attractive on the
basis of free cash flow yield. We find that Asian chemical companies are
cheapest on a PE basis as a result of the run-up in crude oil prices and
greater exposure to naphtha.
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