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Downgrading Trakya Cam and Sisecam to
Neutral owing to dismal demand outlook
and growing cost pressure in flat glass
We remain Overweight on Anadolu Cam
given our expectation of relatively safe
and strong growth in Russia and Turkey
We cut our target prices to TRY2.80 from
TRY3.79 for Anadolu Cam, to TRY1.55
from TRY3.03 for Trakya Cam and to
TRY1.70 from TRY2.65 for Sisecam
We prefer glass packaging to flat glass
We downgrade Trakya Cam and parent Sisecam to Neutral, but
retain our Overweight rating on Anadolu Cam. All three trade at
heavy discounts to average historical multiples, but short- and
medium-term catalysts for Trakya and Sisecam look negative.
Anadolu Cam is now our preferred Sisecam group stock, given
the resilience of its glass-packaging business to imminent macro
fluctuations and still high growth in Russia, where it has big
exposure – despite concerns over this country. In our view, all
these factors make Anadolu Cam a safe and healthy growth play.
Our downgrade for Trakya Cam is based on: (i) dismal demand
outlook for flat glass, given shrinking construction activity in
Turkey; (ii) the equally weak outlook for auto glass, as Turkish
auto production is falling in tandem with the contraction in
European vehicle demand; and (iii) pending natural gas and
electricity prices hikes in Turkey, which will place further cost
pressure on margins. The possible expiry of quotas for cheap flat
glass imports next year creates further uncertainty.
Adjusted for the downward revisions to its listed parts, our NAV
for Sisecam now points to potential upside of only 14%. We
believe it offers no scarcity value beyond its listed parts that
would justify its trading at a NAV discount of less than 20%.
In this report we increase our risk-free rate (RFR) for Turkish
stocks to 14% from 13%, due to the increased risk outlook for
Turkish equities. Our new target prices of TRY1.55 for Trakya
Cam (previously TRY3.03) and TRY1.70 for Sisecam
(TRY2.65) offer total potential returns of 19% and 14%,
respectively. Our new target price of TRY2.80 (old: TRY3.79)
for Anadolu Cam implies potential upside of 74%.
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