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UBS 中国房地产报告08/9月17日(100页)
Don’t catch a falling knife
Tougher economic outlook
Tougher economic outlookThe economic environment within which the China property sector operates has
changed in 2008, for the worse. Softening investment and exports will likely be a
drag on income and consumption growth, slowing any recovery in the currently
consolidating property market.
More home price falls in September/October sales season
More home price falls in September/October sales seasonChallenging affordability and weak sentiment, coupled with a flurry of project
launches by cash-strapped developers in the September/October sales season, could
result in further price declines. High-end housing may not be immune due to low
rental yields and a stronger US dollar.
Sector still faces high 2009 earnings risk
Sector still faces high 2009 earnings riskWe estimate that for every 5% decline in price, developer NAVs and earnings
would come down 6-7% and 6-17%, respectively. Given a likely further decline in
selling prices, we think consensus 2009 earnings estimates could face further
downgrades.
Initiate coverage of CMP and Gemdale with Sell, and Poly with Neutral
Initiate coverage of CMP and Gemdale with Sell, and Poly with NeutralWe initiate coverage of China Merchants Properties (CMP) with a Sell rating
because we believe it missed out on the key stage of property development growth.
We initiate coverage of Gemdale with a Sell rating because of its rapid expansion
without due attention to cost control, in our view. We initiate coverage of Poly
Real Estate Group (Poly) with a Neutral rating owing to its strong fundamentals
and good execution ability but fair valuation.
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