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Contents
Summary 3
Trough Prices 3
New Price Forecasts 3
Speculative influences 5
Exchange Rate Volatility 5
Trough Prices – The drivers 6
Trough Cycles – Summary 9
Exchange Rates 24
Investment Flows - 29
Economic Outlook 34
Supply-Demand and Price Outlook 37
Copper 37
Aluminium 44
Zinc 47
Nickel 48
Iron Ore 50
Thermal Coal 55
Coking Coal 57
Appendix – Supply Demand Balances 59
Appendix A-1 70
Trough Cycle Analysis
Commodity Outlook
Risk — Current turbulent economic times have greatly heightened uncertainly in commodity markets necessitating a different approach. In this report we revise our commodity price forecasts and present trough cycle prices as lines in the sand.
commodity markets necessitating a different approach. In this report we revise
our commodity price forecasts and present trough cycle prices as lines in the
sand.
Forecasts Reduced ~20% — Forecasts for 2009 have been reduced by ~20% as a result of slower demand growth. We remain most positive on the coal markets and copper. Negative on nickel and zinc. Trough cycle prices are between 0% and 70% below our forecasts.
result of slower demand growth. We remain most positive on the coal markets and
copper. Negative on nickel and zinc. Trough cycle prices are between 0% and
70% below our forecasts.
Trough Prices — If commodity markets are in persisting over supply, prices will be determined by costs and margins. Current marginal costs do not provide an accurate guide to trough prices, and our analysis takes account of falling costs and margin compression. We do not believe prices will fall below trough cycle estimates for a sustained period (months).
determined by costs and margins. Current marginal costs do not provide an
accurate guide to trough prices, and our analysis takes account of falling costs
and margin compression. We do not believe prices will fall below trough cycle
estimates for a sustained period (months).
Market Pricing Dynamics — In cyclical troughs the degree of margin compression is generally consistent across the cycles; but varies between commodities because of differences in the shape of the cost curve, amount of swing supply and barriers to exit.
is generally consistent across the cycles; but varies between commodities because
of differences in the shape of the cost curve, amount of swing supply and barriers
to exit.
Speculators Scamper — Speculators and investors are exiting commodity markets. It is notable that both long and short positions are being liquidated and we interpret this as de-risking rather than a negative view on commodities. Holdings in the commodity indexes have been reduced because of counter party risk. LME stocks of aluminium increased sharply as physical positions were sold.
It is notable that both long and short positions are being liquidated and we
interpret this as de-risking rather than a negative view on commodities. Holdings
in the commodity indexes have been reduced because of counter party risk. LME
stocks of aluminium increased sharply as physical positions were sold.
Super Cycle Will Survive — It is important not to lose sight of the long term picture. We regard these conditions as a correction (albeit a severe correction) in a secular bull market. The drivers of the super cycle – urbanisation and industrialization in China and supply restrictions – are intact. Indeed the next upcycle could be more powerful than its predecessor.
picture. We regard these conditions as a correction (albeit a severe correction) in
a secular bull market. The drivers of the super cycle – urbanisation and
industrialization in China and supply restrictions – are intact. Indeed the next upcycle
could be more powerful than its predecessor.
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