【latex版】水贴

As can be seen from Table 1, China's dependency ratio will start to rise. The children dependency ratio is relatively stable. It is the elderly dependency ratio that will be the root cause. The elderly dependency ratio is projected to rise from the current 11% to 38% by the year 2050. Based on the 2000 Census, China's 60+ population accounts for 10.5%, and is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2025 and 29.9% by 2050. In absolute numbers, this implies an elderly (60+) population will rapidly increase from 129 million in 2000–394 million by 2050; a threefold increase in half a century.

The above are projections based on the 2000 census and a lot has happened since.6 The Chinese government is in the process of discontinuing the one-child policy, but how effective this will be is still uncertain. Technically, less than 40% of the families are affected by the one-child policy, and the one-child policy has a “binding effect” on even less (under 20%).7 Furthermore, casual survey of the young people shows that many do not want more than one child, some even plan to have no children. Even in the best circumstances, the abandonment of the one-child policy will increase the number of young population with no effect of the working age group for over a decade. This will further worsen the dependency ratio as the children dependency ratio will rise. Even when the new added children enter the labor force in the late 2020s, the absolute number of the elderly remains unaffected.

China embarked on its historical Comprehensive Economic Reform

this one-child policy was not a direct part of the reform itself.

However, the motivation was still grounded in economics: to maintain a steady labor force while reducing unemployment caused by labor surplus, and to reduce the demand for natural resources to sustain economic growth (Tain, 1983)

The policy is controversial both within and outside China because of the manner in which the policy has been implemented, and because of concerns about negative socio-economic consequences.

These include forced abortions, and more troubling the reputed female infanticide. Despite these, the one-child policy still enjoys strong support within China.3

Aging is one of the major risk factors for vascular diseases.

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