Economists React: Obama Election Makes '08 Reverse of '80
2008年11月06日14:29
For markets the all-Democratic government will usher in a new range of issues. '08 is the reverse of '80 — just as the Reagan election in 1980 accelerated the drive for the limited government agenda, the 2008 election will accelerate the drive toward a more activist role for government. The first 'feel-good' market response to the election is probably over, and markets will now start to focus on specific policy actions… This will be the most interesting and challenging transition in decades, given the continued policy decision-making in the financial sphere. The problem is that the president-elect will not take office for 2 ½ months (Jan 20), and several decisions whose impact will last into Obama's term could be taken in the interim. Get used to the cliché 'one president at a time,' as Bush is still the decider but everyone will want to know Obama's stance. ISI Group
The main issue that markets will watch related to the election will be the transition from the Bush Administration… Quick appointments and joint action could rally market sentiment in the near term, especially given the continued uncertainty about the direction of the TARP; there is little clarity whether TARP will be devoted towards injecting more capital into more firms of more industries, directly assisting homeowners with their mortgages, buying troubled assets through an auction process (or even directly), and so forth. In contrast, stories of culture clashes and departmental in-fighting will be quite negative and dampen any hopes around a nearer-term recovery. Daniel Tenengauzer, Merrill Lynch
Barack Obama is a lucky man. The worst of the recession may be happening before he enters the White House. He can take credit for the recovery, unless he prolongs the recession by raising taxes. Hopefully, his economic advisors will tell him that the economic situation is so bad that his administration must begin by stimulating the economy. In other words, the New Deal must take precedence over the Fair Deal. I still believe that the government should nationalize Fannie and Freddie and have them buy 30-year mortgages with 4% rates. A similar idea is to provide all mortgage borrowers with a two percentage-point subsidy. The Bushies seemed more focused on reactively stabilizing the economy than on stimulating it. The Obamites are likely to be much more proactive, using all the resources of the government (that are left) to get the economy growing again. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research
Exit polls indicate that the economy was overwhelmingly the most important issue deciding this election, also as expected. That being the case, we expect President-elect Obama to move decisively to address economic stress. We suspect he will support even more fiscal stimulus than the $200bn we have penciled in to our forecast; Congress could move on this even before the change-over on January 20. The president-elect has also advocated a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures; how this fares in Congress is less certain. Goldman Sachs
A magnificent victory for Barack Obama. And bear in mind that the campaign, in its final stages, was really about different philosophies of governing. This wasn't like the 2004 campaign, which was essentially fought over fake issues — Bush running on national security and social issues, then claiming that he had a mandate to privatize Social Security. In this election, Obama proudly stood up for progressive values and the superiority of progressive policies; John McCain, in return, denounced him as a socialist, a redistributor. And the American people rendered their verdict. Now the work begins. Paul Krugman, Princeton University and New York Times
Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and will govern with huge Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. What will he do? … In many ways, the bad economy will allow Obama to duck critical long-term issues, such as entitlements, trade, and tax reform. But sooner or later, he will have to decide: Will he run a Bob Rubin economic policy or follow a Bob Reich agenda? Neither man is likely to serve in his administration, but the echoes of their differences remain, still unresolved eight years after the end of the Clinton presidency. Howard Gleckman, Tax Policy Center
This election result is positive and promising in several respects. First, it will give Americans a powerful boost of confidence and optimism particularly important as lack of confidence has been a hallmark of the financial crisis from the very start. Second, it enhances the potential for strengthened international cooperation to overcome the economic and financial crisis. The U.S. can now play a leading role, together with Europe and the other major economic powers, to pull the world economy out of this dangerous slump and revamp the global financial system. International cooperation has never been more important, and a strong American leadership is a huge asset at this juncture. Marco Annunziata, UniCredit
Heidi Moore
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-11-7 5:14:26编辑过]
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