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spectacular energy cycle crash ever, we are now staring at the wreckage. So
what happens next? We expect 2009 will be the year when most of the energy
cycle reboots itself, propelled mainly by severe depletion in oil and natural gas
production. Once demand curves stabilize and eventually move back up, the
world will likely once again face restricted energy supply, and prices will need to
rise. The cycle has crashed, but many vital questions regarding medium and
long-term energy provision remain unanswered. Overall we are cautious
heading into 2009. We are looking to take on more energy equity exposure as
signs of the cycle reboot emerge during 2009.
In this extract we focus on the global Oilfield Services and Equipment
sector. We believe shares are reflecting reasonably pessimistic assumptions
regarding activity and earnings in 2009. But we are cautious with respect to
expectations regarding a recovery in 2010, which may prove challenging given
the tighter credit environment, lost momentum with respect to projects/activity
and, on a more selective basis, recent meaningful equipment capacity additions.
In addition, we have extracted two offshore rig articles from Energy in
2009, a shipyard analysis and a brief discussion of offshore driller dayrates.
Table of contents
Oilfield Services & Drilling in 2009 3
Summary—breath holding on 2010 3
Discussion 3
U.S. Services in 2009 8
U.S. contract drillers in 2009 10
U.S. equipment in 2009 15
European oilfield services in 2009 17
Shipyard Analysis 20
Dayrate Sensitivity 26
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