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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国石油开采行业前景展望
【作者】：CORMARK
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：72
【目录或简介】：
Investment Thesis
2010 Potentially A Breakout
Year For Small Resource
Companies
With a backdrop of large asset divestures planned by EnCana, Suncor, Talisman, Nexen,
and others with volumes of up to 500,000 BOE/d potentially for sale in 2010, and the
Trust space readying for corporate conversions (by 2011), we anticipate that 2010 will be
an important transition year.
We have seen a massive change in development activity with most dollars being allocated
toward “resource style” developments using horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracture
completions. We anticipate that new technology will continue to be applied to new play
types – often targeting what we traditionally think of as conventional plays – and
although not all these new resource plays will work, there will be many opportunities for
investors to profit in 2010.
We anticipate that smaller cap companies will continue to play an important role of
identifying then beginning development of emerging resources plays before passing the
new plays “up the food chain” to the larger players that need visible, large-scale programs
where they can deploy large amounts of capital and derive predictable results.
Drill, Complete, And Repeat
Repeat Repeat!
Key success factors for resource plays both large and small will be:
• Repeatable/scalable play types on large contiguous land bases. We have seen
aggressive land captures on plays, which are amenable to resource development,
including the Bakken, the Lower Shaunavon and Viking light oil plays in
Saskatchewan, and in the Montney/Doig fairway in Alberta and Northeast BC.
We believe that this type of activity will continue and that companies, which can
move early at new play identification and development, can reap handsome
rewards.
• Large or small, successful resource players need to demonstrate the financial
wherewithal and technical expertise required in order to successfully develop
resource style assets. We have seen a clear differentiation in the valuation of
teams that are successful at developing resources versus the players, which have
lands but not production and reserves in resource plays. Access to capital remains
a critical issue and despite several recapitalization events, we think that there are
still too many “orphaned” small-cap producers in the basin.
• Infrastructure control remains a critical piece of the development puzzle for both
unconventional and conventional drillers. However, given that unconventional
plays often see high growth rates and associated high capital requirements, the
access to infrastructure issue is exacerbated for unconventional plays.
• Harnessing of new technology in order to maximize returns will remain a key
strategy for success. The Bakken play provides a good example of the increases
in recoveries and value, which can be accrued with changes in technology. We
believe that successful drillers need to be attuned to new technology.
We Need A Stable Fiscal
Environment In Alberta
With the Government of Alberta still struggling to find the right balance between
stimulating drilling activity and taking the Province’s share of industry returns, we have
seen capital spending shift toward Saskatchewan and British Columbia, which have
royalty regimes that are both more favourable and more stable. We are hopeful that
Alberta will provide positive and permanent changes to the Alberta royalty regime in
coming months.
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