发帖
雷达卡
Emerging Europe Turkey
Banking/Finance
28 November 2008
Turkish Banking
Welcome to muddle through;
PTs cut by 13%
Serhan Gok
Research Analyst
(90) 212 292 2854
serhan.gok@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Companies featured
Akbank (AKBNK.IS),TRY4.18 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.61 0.56 0.63
P/E (x) 13.7 7.5 6.7
P/B (x) 2.4 1.1 1.0
Garanti Bank (GARAN.IS),TRY2.28 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.38 0.43 0.42
P/E (x) 16.5 5.3 5.4
P/B (x) 3.6 1.1 0.9
Halkbank (HALKB.IS),TRY4.06 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.90 0.97 0.89
P/E (x) 12.2 4.2 4.6
P/B (x) 3.2 1.1 0.9
Isbank (ISCTR.IS),TRY4.00 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.56 0.60 0.58
P/E (x) 11.6 6.2 5.1
P/B (x) 1.8 1.2 1.0
Vakifbank (VAKBN.IS),TRY1.20 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.36 0.30 0.28
P/E (x) 11.1 4.0 4.3
P/B (x) 1.9 0.5 0.5
Yapi Kredi Bank (YKBNK.IS),TRY1.92 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (TRY) 0.16 0.25 0.25
P/E (x) 22.0 7.7 7.6
P/B (x) 3.2 1.2 1.1
Global Markets Research Company
PTs cut by 13% on lower growth, profitability and higher WACC assumptions
We are cutting our earnings estimates and PTs for Turkish banks on lower growth,
profitability and slightly higher WACC assumptions. Akbank and Isbank have been
underperformers since the disappointing 3Q08 results announcements (still
outperformers y-t-d), but they remain as Holds on limited relative potential upsides to
PTs (28% and 24%). Garanti remains a Buy on valuation grounds with the highest
potential upside (54%) among the Big-4, but we do not expect the bank to stand out in
2009 from a results delivery standpoint. We believe Halkbank is oversold and
overlooked. We expect the bank to remain one of the fastest growing and most
profitable names in our coverage: Buy maintained on 63% potential upside to revised
PT. We upgrade Yapi Kredi to Hold as our PT shows a limited 5% potential upside,
which no longer justifies a Sell. Vakifbank remains a Buy on the prevailing deep
discounts to peers and revised PT, while we do not expect the bank’s 2008 and 2009
results to provide any catalysts before the expected recovery in 2010.
Money market dynamics attract Turkish banks to carry trade
Last week the CBT surprised the market with a 50bp rate cut with a direct impact on
banks’ funding costs. Turkish banks are tapping the CBT lending facility via daily oneweek
repo auctions. Now with long-tenor T-bills trading almost 400bp over the CBT
repo rate, this lucrative carry inevitably eats into Turkish banks’ lending appetites,
which, coupled with the high loan rates leads to a sharp contraction volumes. Thus,
we are not expecting meaningful loan growth in 4Q08. Now on the heels of a macro
aid package, which may contain additional CBT support in banking funding costs, such
as lower reserve requirements, Turkish banks would continue to see the fixed income
investments as a more straightforward trade, considering the higher NPL problems
attached to lending.
2009E EPS cut by 10-27%
Following the recently announced 3Q08 results showing a downtrend in earnings and
the ongoing slowdown and margin contraction in 4Q08, we lower our 2008 EPS
estimates by 6% on average. Slower loan growth, sticky deposit interest rates and
higher cost of risk bring down our average NIM assumption by 15bps on average for
2008 and 13bps for 2009. The slowdown in loan volume growth and higher cost of risk
assumptions lower 2009E EPS growth to low single digits on similarly high cost of
funding assumptions for 2008 and 2009.
Valuation and risks
In valuing Turkish banks, we use a single-stage target P/BV multiple model
incorporating banks’ sustainable ROTE’s. We derive our cost of equity (14.4%), using
9.0% Eurobond yields as the risk free rate (up from 8.5%) and add a 4.5% equity risk
premium adjusted by banks’ Betas (1.20). See pages 13-14 for our individual bank
valuations. A sustainable benign macro outlook is the main assumption underlying our
price targets. We believe that the main downside risk to our sector outlook is higher
than expected deterioration in asset quality in case of a sharp slowdown in the
economy. Another key downside risk is increasing cost of deposits amid a more
difficult funding environment. See pages 16-17 for company specific risks.
Table of Contents
Welcome to muddle through............................................................ 3
Sector in transition ....................................................................................................................3
Turkish Banks better positioned to withstand a macro downturn.............................................4
How the global outlook impacts Turkish banks?.......................................................................4
Key revisions to our models ............................................................. 7
Lending to remain on hold until confidence returns..................................................................7
Higher cost of TRY deposits: key concern for 2008 NIMs........................................................8
Further increase in cost of risk estimates to reflect higher NPLs .............................................9
2009E EPS cut by 13% on average ........................................................................................10
Stress-testing our estimates ...................................................................................................10
Valuation and ratings ...................................................................... 13
PTs cut by 13% on average ....................................................................................................13
Garanti Bank maintained at Buy on valuation grounds ............................................................15
Akbank and Isbank took a beating after 3Q08 announcements ..............................................15
Halkbank oversold & overlooked; Vakifbank cheap w/o catalysts ...........................................15
Yapi Kredi upgraded to Hold on valuation grounds .................................................................15
Risks.................................................................................................. 19
Sector outlook........................................................................................................................19
Company specific risks: ..........................................................................................................19
Revised estimates ........................................................................... 21
Akbank ...................................................................................................................................21
Garanti....................................................................................................................................22
Halkbank ................................................................................................................................24
Isbank.....................................................................................................................................25
Vakifbank................................................................................................................................27
Yapi Kredi ...............................................................................................................................28
Summary financials .................................................................................................................31
282258.pdf
(618.92 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
