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10 November 2008
Italian Consumer Stocks
Updating estimates and TPs
ahead of Q3
Francesca Di Pasquantonio
Research Analyst
(39) 02 86379 753
francesca.dipasquantonio@db.com
Incorporating challenging macro conditions
We summarize our views on some of our covered Italian stocks ahead of the Q3
reporting season this week. These reflect new FX and macro-economic scenarios,
especially in light of recent financial and market troubles and of more subdued
macroeconomic expectations by DB economists for 2009-10.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-
208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Top picks
Gruppo Coin SPA (GCN.MI),EUR1.98 Buy
Companies featured
Amplifon (AMPF.MI),EUR1.13 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.21 0.10 0.10
P/E (x) 28.6 10.8 11.3
EV/EBITA (x) 21.4 10.4 10.3
Benetton (BNG.MI),EUR5.70 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.81 0.82 0.67
P/E (x) 15.4 6.9 8.5
EV/EBITA (x) 12.0 7.0 8.0
Bulgari SpA (BULG.MI),EUR6.09 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.51 0.45 0.44
P/E (x) 21.4 13.6 14.0
EV/EBITA (x) 20.3 13.0 12.7
Gruppo Coin SPA (GCN.MI),EUR1.98 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.34 0.29 0.25
P/E (x) 16.9 6.9 7.8
EV/EBITA (x) 10.0 5.7 5.8
Geox SpA (GEO.MI),EUR5.66 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.48 0.50 0.48
P/E (x) 28.7 11.4 11.7
EV/EBITA (x) 19.1 7.5 7.2
Safilo Group (SFLG.MI),EUR0.75 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.17 0.10 0.09
P/E (x) 22.7 7.9 8.0
EV/EBITA (x) 11.8 6.9 6.4
TOD's Spa (TOD.MI),EUR35.66 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 2.56 2.70 2.82
P/E (x) 24.4 13.2 12.7
EV/EBITA (x) 14.5 8.1 7.7
Global Markets Research Company
Expecting a much tougher 2009
We expect a recession in 2009 in most developed economies vs. a slowdown
previously. In particular, consumption should weaken in all key European countries
and in the US. As for Italy (avg. 40% of sales for universe considered), we expect
real GDP at -1.0% in 2009 and consumption at -0.8%, and no recovery in 2010.
3Q08 preview
We show our 3Q earnings expectations for individual companies. Although difficult
to generalize, we point to increasing pressure on the top line and hence erosion of
profitability. Safilo and Amplifon in particular may deliver worrying results, while
Geox should significantly moderate its growth as credit crunch bites in restraining
financing flexibility for its wholesale clients. Bulgari’s trends could remain weak in
Q3, while Tod’s and Benetton Q3 should not produce any material surprise.
Estimates revisions
We are accordingly changing estimates and target prices on the following stocks:
Amplifon, Benetton Group, Gruppo Coin, Geox and Safilo. We are making no
changes to Bulgari and Tod’s as numbers have recently been revised (16 October,
2009 the worst year on record for luxury – sector review). With very few
exceptions, we assume that companies will face sharp declines in sales volumes
and price/ mix, as a result of reduction in disposable income and trading down. We
assume this leads to margin compression and to deteriorating net working capital
and cashflows. This will be particularly evident and problematic for Safilo and
Amplifon, while we believe Gruppo Coin is better positioned. We expect five
companies will report lower year-on-year net income in 2008 and six in 2009.
Gruppo Coin remains the only Buy due to massive upside vs. TP
The current scenario makes us more prudent on consumer stocks as valuation
alone is not a good enough reason to be invested in the universe. Indeed given the
expected deteriorating trends in consumer spending we do not see any reason,
other than cheap valuation for some stocks, to be exposed to the sector. Hence
given limited prospects for improvement in macro trends in the months ahead we
downgrade Geox and Benetton from Buy to Hold, although we note that i) Geox
remains one of the best managed companies in our universe and hence we will be
carefully monitoring any signs of reversing trends; and ii) BNG has limited shortterm
risks, an appealing dividend yield and undemanding multiples. Gruppo Coin
will suffer from similar negative earnings momentum, however, low valuation
already discounts a much worse scenario – hence we retain our Buy. We believe
Safilo and Amplifon to be more vulnerable in the challenging environment. Yet, low
valuation provides a floor as it could spur some take-over or de-listing interest.
This report changes ratings, price targets, and estimates for the companies under
coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see Figure 3.
Table of Contents
Summary ................................................................................................ 3
How serious is financial risk?........................................................................ 6
A glance at key macro indicators ................................................................... 6
Company pages ...................................................................................... 12
Amplifon............................................................................................... 13
Benetton............................................................................................... 17
Bulgari SpA ........................................................................................... 21
Geox SpA.............................................................................................. 24
Gruppo Coin SPA .................................................................................... 28
Safilo Group .......................................................................................... 31
TOD's Spa ............................................................................................. 35
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