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29 May 2009
The ASEAN consumer
Back to basics
Key themes across ASEAN
We unravel and discuss major consumer
trends, quirks, habits and behaviours in
ASEAN, and the major beneficiaries of
these themes.
Understanding the ASEAN consumer
Meluchi Rivera
Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc.
Research Analyst
(63) 2 894 6646
meluchi.rivera@db.com
Su-Yin Teoh
Strategist
(60) 3 2053 6770
su-yin.teoh@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
This research has been prepared in association with Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc. The opinions contained in this report are those
of Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Table of contents
The ASEAN consumer Page 5
Indonesian consumer Page 10
Malaysian consumer Page 20
Filipino consumer Page 31
Singapore consumer Page 38
Thai consumer Page 47
ASEAN valuations
Indonesia 09E 10E
EPS gr % 4 14
PEx 12.6 11.1
PBx 2.5 2.2
Malaysia
EPS gr % -10 8
PEx 16.0 14.8
PBx 1.9 1.8
Philippines
EPS gr % 22 13
PEx 11.4 10.2
PBx 1.6 1.5
Singapore
EPS gr % -21 9
PEx 16.2 14.8
PBx 1.5 1.4
Thailand
EPS gr % 22 15
PEx 10.5 9.1
PBx 1.4 1.3
Source: Bloomberg, DB, Priced as of market close 25 May '09
ASEAN consumer analysts
Reva Cipto (Indonesia) +6221389527
Meluchi Rivera (Philippines) +6328946646
James Tan (Singapore) +6564235139
Polasit Tanpoonkiat (Thailand) +6626336486
Nattanee Tanprasert (Thailand) +6626336482
Su-yin Teoh (Malaysia) +60320536770
Anne Ling (Head of Regional Consumer) +85222036177
Theme 1 -- Catering to the youth; traditional media still reigns
The demographics of the TIP+M markets display themes classic to developing
economies, such as relatively low per capita income levels and a young
population. Rising incomes and urbanization should underpin healthy growth in
consumption and spur constant product innovation, which should in turn support
rising advertising and media spend. As TV remains the dominant form of media in
these markets, we prefer broadcasters such as BEC World (BEC.BK) in Thailand.
Theme 2 -- Relative resilience; discretionary spending limited
Relatively low income levels mean there is very little discretionary spending to cut
back on, even in times of crisis. The economies of the Philippines and Indonesia
also have little exposure to exports and low household debt levels. Indofood
(INDF.JK), with its product mix that target the mass market, attractive profit
growth prospects of its noodle business and reasonable valuations, is our favored
pick.
Theme 3 -- Urban sprawl continues; public transport necessity
With rising rates of urbanization across all of ASEAN comes the increased need for
public transport. The model public transport system in the region is fully-urbanized
Singapore, where we see public ridership continuing to grow, aided by key
government initiatives. The share of public transport in that market stands at 63%
during morning peak hours and is targeted to rise further to 70% by 2020, adding
another 3-4m daily riders. Of the two listed public transport players in Singapore,
we recommend SMRT (MRT.SP).
Figure 1: Top Buys for ASEAN consumer
Ticker Rating TP (LCY) Upside PERx 09E PERx 10E
Indofood INDF.JK Buy 2,000 12.4 12.6 9.6
SMRT Corp SMRT.SI Buy 2.05 30.6 14.5 13.3
BEC World BEC.BK Buy 23.50 19.3 14.5 13.7
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