<p>摩根士丹利发布的2009年预测报告，希望对做研究和投资的朋友有用</p><p>What’s Different for 2009: Our strategy will be adjusted to exploit opportunities that arise from an unprecedented shift from monetary to fiscal and non-traditional forms of stimulus – such as quantitative easing. This change will provide us with a tactical edge for the year ahead. What’s different is that trading in global rates during 2009 will be more tactical versus 2008 which was more strategic.<br/> <br/>The Great Balancing Act: Market support and stimulus provided by the public sector needs to have a balanced response by facilitating private sector activity. Crowding-out needs to be avoided. As a result, a new set of global market dynamics is put in motion and they are: policy, supply, inflation and leverage. New metrics will be used to gauge the interaction of these four strategic factors to evaluate tactical trading opportunities in 2009. We will use our common framework across the risk quadrants of duration, curve, volatility and spreads to identify these opportunities. <br/> <br/>Sequencing Matters: Both the path and relative value for global rates will depend on sequencing; which markets respond to stimulus first and by how much. For 1H09 our view is simple and uniform. We expect further global economic weakness during this period and the quality of return attributions will come from owning duration points on the curve that benefit most from vol adjusted rolldown and carry. We expect correlations across markets to rise in 1H09.<br/>In 2H09 our economists believe that we will start to see a recovery. This means that the performance of global rate markets will be less clear, as it will depend on a response function to stimulus both in terms of time and scope. In contrast to 1H09, correlations across markets may fall in 2H09. This will create many tactical trading opportunities for us to exploit. </p>
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