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当前经济形势及新一轮宏观调控政策取向... 1

2009年世界经济前景与中国外贸发展形势展望... 8

2009年货币政策目标与调控思路... 16

当前财政经济形势与进一步发挥财政政策作用... 20

对当前和今后一段时期中国经济走势的认识与判断... 28

国际汇率、油价、物价变动的新格局对中国的机遇与挑战... 36

当前世界能源市场格局下的中国能源发展战略... 46

深化改革，增加投入，更好地解决三农问题... 58

在经济放缓阶段，推进完善市场机制的重要改革... 68

当前信息技术的新发展及其在我国的应用前景... 75

四川地震灾后重建规划与主要投资项目... 83

2009年实现“节能减排”的主要政策措施和前景展望... 91

当前资本市场格局与企业债券的发展... 98

转换经济发展模式，促进内需发展的政策措施... 107

当前投资形势分析... 111

2009年我国工业发展的政策取向... 119

保持我国房地产业健康发展的政策建议... 132

283091.doc (567 KB)

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[下载]经济危机背景下中国经济相关11个分析报告[部分免费下载]

fuguitop  金钱 +30  谢谢分享，再接再厉 O(∩_∩)O 2009-2-26 10:51:24

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关键词：分析报告 中国经济 经济危机 免费下载 fuguitop 下载 中国经济 经济危机

摩根：2009年中国经济展望

December 10, 2008
China Economics
Outlook for 2009: Getting
Worse Before Getting Better
Time for year-end reflection...With the benefit of
hindsight, we think we were correct in terms of the
direction and trajectory of the economy in 2008;
however, the economy has been more volatile than we
initially anticipated. In the same vein, while the course of
policy action has been broadly in line with our calls,
policy responses in the latest months were more
aggressive than we originally envisaged at the end of
2007 but appear warranted, given the rapid deterioration
in economic fundamentals.
…and projection. We think that China’s economic
outlook for 2009 is best characterized as ‘getting worse
before getting better,’ laying the foundation for a firmer
recovery in 2010. Further growth deceleration is
expected in 1H09, and deflation is a distinct possibility.
The effect of massive policy stimulus implemented since
October 2008, together with a tepid recovery in G3
economies, is expected to help the Chinese economy
regain some growth momentum in 2H09.
Risks. We construct two alternative scenarios: the bear
(featuring 5% GDP growth) and bull (9% GDP growth)
cases to highlight both the downside and upside risks to
the 2009 outlook under our base case (7.5% GDP
growth). Real estate investment will be the biggest
swing factor among the scenarios, in our view.
Market Implications. While public-sector-driven growth
will help achieve headline GDP growth and job creation
targets and thus limit the extreme downside risk of an
outright hard landing, it will likely be unable to deliver
nearly as strong corporate earnings growth when the
same level of headline GDP growth is fueled by buoyant
private-sector spending. The public-sector growth will
likely be in a relatively ‘job-rich’ but ‘profit-deficient’
macroeconomic environment in which bonds tend to be
favored over equities. Within the equity space,
sectors/companies with high earning visibility and/or
those exposed to government-supported capex will
likely outperform.

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凯雷：经济危机下全球经济下滑及私募企业所受影响分析

The Impact of the Financial Services
Meltdown on The Global Economy And The
Private Equity Industry

Excesses in The US Housing And
Mortgage Markets Are A Root Cause
􀂾 Subprime loans accounted for 15% of the US
mortgage market in 2006 vs. 3% in 2002

􀂾 The more than $600 billion of subprime
mortgages that were issued in the US proved
riskier than anticipated

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hao

PPT标题：2008年金融危机

INTRODUCTION
GREAT DEPRECION (1929-1933)
PRIME AND SUB-PRIME CREDITS
CAUSES OF RECENT WORLD F?NANCIAL CR?SES
EFFECTS OF CR?SES
    EFFECTS TO USA
    EFFECTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES
    EFFECTS TO BUSINESS SECTORS
    EFFECTS TO GLOBAL MONEY MARKET
    EFFECTS TO CONSUMERS
PREDICTIONS ABOUT CRISES
CONSEQUENS OF CRISES
POSIBLE SOLUTIONS OF CRISES

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• Global Financial Crisis.ppt

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高盛2009宏观经济展望

危机过后可能出现机遇
历史表明危机往往会带来具吸引力的长期投资机会。我们认为，拥有强劲增长潜
力和雄厚的财政/外汇储备实力的中国仍是全球最佳投资市场之一。我们预计，
2009 年H 股和A 股市场的股价潜在回报率分别为53.4%和11.0%，上行空间将
主要受到全球/国内增长企稳迹象出现后估值倍数的正常化推动。
重整旗鼓、蓄势待发、然后反弹
宏观经济的下滑将给盈利带来压力，但较低的估值、市场每股盈利和汇率预期的
下调、市场情绪的低迷和政策的灵活性应会提供一定的下行保护。09 年上半年市
场可能依然震荡，但我们认为，下半年当宏观经济增长的下行趋势可能触底时，
市场更有可能出现显著的反弹行情。
行业策略：上半年消费板块；下半年周期性板块
上半年我们看好拥有盈利保障和具有防御性的日常消费品、互联网/传媒、电信和
基础设施板块，下半年则从贝塔值的角度转向金融/周期性板块。从投资题材来
看，我们认为，现金充裕、财务状况稳健的公司应会在流动性紧张的环境中取得
出色表现。
高

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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

GEMs Equity Strategy
2009 Outlook: Fight Back,
Particularly in Asia

We expect a fight back from GEM equities in 2009
and think Asia will outperform EMEA and LatAm.
Our scenario-weighted target price for MSCI EM is 810
for 2009. This represents 62% upside from current
levels (similar to 1993 or 1999). We therefore retain our
13th October maximum overweight recommendation.
In our view, the secular bull market in EM equities,
dating back to the Asian crisis, is intact. MSCI EM
has returned 112% over the ten-year horizon versus
-6% for MSCI World (US$). The structural increase in
ROE over the cycle is the key driver. We expect a 5
percentage point fall in ROE to 12% in our base case,
with a shorter and less acute earnings recession in EM
than in DM, not least due to policy response. However,
we also highlight risks to our view (US dollar rallies
further, larger earnings recession, and structural
de-rating of global equities) which could drive prices to
our Bear Scenario target price of 415 (-20%).

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Entrepreneurship and Innovation in China- 1978-2008, 20年中国企业创业及革新

THE ASCENT OF CHINA after some 500 years of inward-looking stagnation is the
central phenomenon of today's global economy. China is not yet the richest nation on
earth, but, in Adam Smith's words, it is the most thriving. In a replay of a young
America's relationship with England, moreover, China is now on a path to challenge the
United States in every measure of national power.
In one way or another China dominates the discussion across many realms of
culture and commerce. From international trade, monetary policy, and intellectual
property to energy use and military power, and from the hype of the Beijing Olympics to
the surge of Asian food, dress, and style in the West, China factors centrally in many of
our most profound public policy debates and everyday conversations. Americans are
filled with a mix of awe and anger over China. Visitors are astounded at its unrivaled

growth and palpable energy and optimism. Detractors believe China has driven up oil
prices, manipulated its currency, stolen American jobs, oppressed its own citizens, and
is preparing for an inevitable clash with the U.S.

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2100年中国碳排放预测

Introduction...............................................................................................................................2
Some previous scenarios............................................................................................................3
ERI / LBNL 2020...................................................................................................................4
ERI 2050 ...............................................................................................................................5
Decarbonising the UK............................................................................................................5
Our scenario approach ...............................................................................................................6
Choosing a global budget.......................................................................................................6
Which apportionment method?..............................................................................................7
Cumulative emissions budgets for China ..............................................................................9
From budgets to trajectories.................................................................................................10
The Tyndall China scenarios in detail .....................................................................................12
Scenario 1: 70GtC 2020.......................................................................................................14
Scenario 2: 111GtC 2030L ..................................................................................................16
Scenario 3: 90GtC 2020.......................................................................................................17
Scenario 4: 111GtC 2030.....................................................................................................19
Next steps................................................................................................................................20
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................21
References...............................................................................................................................21

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2025年之前中国与世界经济展望

Contents
Section 1. Preface 2
Section 2. Executive Summary 5
Section 3. Regional Ties 11
Section 4. Unfulfilled Promise 27
Section 5. New Silk Road 43
Section 6. Comparing the Three Scenarios 57
Section 7. Conclusion 65
Annex: Recommended Reading 68
Acknowledgements 70
Project Team Members 72

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