<p>Table of Contents<br/>Investment Summary.............................................................................3<br/>Overview – Recommendations..............................................................4<br/>Introduction to the New World Order .................................................5<br/>Potential Catalysts to Watch For in the Sector .............................................. 5<br/>Sector Weighting ........................................................................................... 6<br/>What Matters to Value in the New World Order................................7<br/>Oil Sands Now – Will the Prodigal Sector Return? ..........................11<br/>New Technologies: A Comparison Across the Sector .......................12<br/>Oil Price and Access to Capital – First and Foremost ................................. 13<br/>Supply versus Demand – Always the Big Question .................................... 15<br/>Why Mexico Matters to the Canadian Oil Sands......................................... 17<br/>Capital Cost Pressures in the Oil Sands Easing ........................................... 18<br/>Investment Thesis.................................................................................21<br/>Back to School – the Levers of Value in Oil Sands............................22<br/>Established Technologies – Integrated Mining and SAGD..............25<br/>Canadian Oil Sands Trust ............................................................................ 25<br/>Suncor Energy Inc. ...................................................................................... 25<br/>Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. ................................................................ 26<br/>Mining and Integrated Technology – Focus on Opex<br/>and Efficiency .......................................................................................27<br/>In-Situ Technology – It’s All About Mobility....................................31<br/>Emerging Trends and Technologies: A Comparison of Options.....33<br/>EnCana’s Wedge Wells ............................................................................... 33<br/>E-T Energy’s ET-DSP™ ............................................................................. 37<br/>Laricina Energy’s Ltd.’s Cold Solvent Process ........................................... 44<br/>Oilsands Quest Inc.’s Hybrid Thermal Extraction Process.......................... 48<br/>OPTI Canada Inc. – Combined OrCrudeTM and Gasification...................... 48<br/>Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd.’s THAI™ Process .......................... 49<br/>New Technologies: A Comparison Across the Sector .......................55<br/>Conclusions ...........................................................................................59<br/>Key Investment Risks...........................................................................60<br/>Appendix I. NAV Modelling and Risking Methodology...................62<br/>Appendix II. Pricing Methodology .....................................................65<br/>Appendix III. Reserves and Resources – A COGEH Primer...........66<br/>Appendix IV. Emissions and the Oil Sands .......................................74<br/>Appendix V. Justification of and Key Risks to Target Prices..........80<br/>APPENDIX A. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ...............................83</p><p>Investment Summary<br/>• Oil sands equities have fallen spectacularly out of favour in recent months,<br/>due, we believe, to the recognition that the current price of oil is insufficient<br/>to justify anything but the most robust expansions in the best projects. In our<br/>view, greenfields growth can not be justified until oil moves back into<br/>US$75/bbl+ territory, at least.<br/>• It is precisely this current disfavour that we see creating some attractive<br/>opportunities for investors. As we transition through what appears to be the<br/>bottom of the current commodity cycle, we believe that investors have valued<br/>oil sands equities at too steep a discount, especially the companies that have<br/>robust commercial operations or technological advancements to offer.<br/>• We believe that the Canadian oil sands sector has just experienced its first<br/>bona fide valuation ‘adjustment’ and that, commensurate with this correction,<br/>investors’ views on value points in the sector have changed fundamentally.<br/>• As a consequence of a surging oil price over the past five years, investors<br/>rewarded oil sands pure plays for buying land and drilling it up – essentially for<br/>adding to the in-the-ground barrel tally. But, with cash flow and liquidity now at<br/>the forefront of investor’s minds, companies that can bring execution and<br/>technological improvements to the table appear to have the valuation advantage.<br/>We feature emerging technologies prominently in this research report.<br/>• In conjunction with this industry overview report, we are initiating coverage<br/>on four oil sands companies. Each name offers investors something different<br/>and presents different risks. We believe that at the present time, investors see<br/>more value in companies with proven execution track records and financial<br/>flexibility, and those themes are reflected in our ratings and target prices.<br/>• Finally, liquidity and breakeven pricing themes feature strongly in our<br/>initiation reports. The volatility in current oil prices means investors must keep<br/>a close eye on the balance sheet quarter-over-quarter until we have transitioned<br/>through the bottom of the cycle.</p><p>Overview – Recommendations<br/>We are initiating coverage on the following companies with ratings and target<br/>prices as shown below:<br/>• Canadian Oil Sands Trust. (COS.UN-T; HOLD; $24.00 target). Canadian<br/>Oil Sands Trust provides investors with access to a long-term commodity price<br/>play on an existing operation, while receiving quarterly distributions. With a<br/>distribution cut forecast for next quarter, we believe we are approaching a<br/>logical entry point for investors. Refer to our initiating coverage report on<br/>Canadian Oil Sands Trust published in conjunction with this research report for<br/>additional information and important risk rating and disclaimer information.<br/>• OPTI Canada Inc. (OPC-T; SPECULATIVE BUY; $4.00 target). We see<br/>considerable value in OPTI’s recently revised ownership of Long Lake and<br/>future phases. However, liquidity issues could continue to weigh heavily until<br/>such time as the company clarifies its intentions for Phase 2. In our view,<br/>confirmation of the project through upgrader start-up would reduce the<br/>perceived risk in the short term. Refer to our initiating coverage report on<br/>OPTI published in conjunction with this research report for additional<br/>information and important risk rating and disclaimer information.<br/>• Oilsands Quest Inc. (BQI-N; REDUCE; US$0.30 target). As we see it, the<br/>lack of continuous cap rock at Oilsands Quest’s Axe Lake and Raven Ridge<br/>properties is a significant technical hurdle that still needs to be addressed.<br/>While this may not be an absolute barrier to commercial development, we<br/>believe that significant additional R&amp;D and testing will be required before an<br/>extraction methodology can be advanced to the commercial stage. We do not<br/>believe that a commercial pilot project is imminent and this affects our<br/>assessment of value. Refer to our initiating coverage report on Oilsands Quest<br/>published in conjunction with this research report for additional information<br/>and important risk rating and disclaimer information.<br/>• Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T; BUY; $35.00 target) is currently our top pick<br/>in the oil sands sector. In our view, Suncor provides investors with exposure<br/>to best-in-class oil sands assets, a strong track record on execution, a<br/>development plan that has plenty of growth and the financial flexibility to<br/>weather the current economic downturn. Refer to our initiating coverage report<br/>on Suncor published in conjunction with this research report for additional<br/>information and important risk rating and disclaimer information.</p><p></p><p>
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