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Overweight: BHEL, Gamesa, Shanghai
Electric (V), Siemens, Vestas
Neutral: ABB, Harbin Power (V), Suzlon
(V), Alstom (from Underweight)
Underweight (V): Doosan Heavy
Crisis? What crisis?
Over the past year worldwide orders for thermal power
generation equipment (coal, gas and nuclear) have staged a
major recovery (more than 50% growth) while order growth for
transmission equipment and for key renewable technologies
remains very robust (double digit across the board).
Notwithstanding exceptional fundamentals, however, our stock
picking has become selective following outperformance.
We have Overweight ratings on five of the 10 power tech
stocks in our global coverage: BHEL, Gamesa, Siemens,
Vestas and Shanghai Electric (V). The strategic attraction of
Siemens and Shanghai Electric is their broad technology
portfolio; in contrast the strategic attraction of BHEL,Vestas
and Gamesa is their niche positioning (India for BHEL,
windpower for Gamesa and Vestas). In this report we
upgrade Alstom to Neutral from Underweight and raise our
TP to EUR135 from EUR95. We maintain our Underweight
(V) rating on Doosan Heavy, which we think is simply
overbought (up 278% over the past 12 months).
This version corrects the Alstom target price, which was
mistyped in the original note published 18 January 2008.
Siemens 4
GE 9
ABB 11
Alstom 14
Areva 20
Mitsubishi Heavy Inds 23
Toshiba 25
Vestas 27
Shanghai Electric 30
Gamesa 34
Harbin Power 37
BHEL 41
Doosan Heavy 46
Suzlon 50
Disclosure appendix 56
Disclaimer 59
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