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Specialty Finance
SECTOR REVIEW
2009 Outlook; Establishing 2010 Estimates
■
The 2009 economic environment remains greatly uncertain. Credit Suisse
economists believe that the economy will likely be impacted “more by the political
process than by the underlying economic process.” With significant declines
anticipated in real GDP, consumer spending, employment, and corporate
earnings throughout 2009, an economic rebound is no longer expected until late
2009/early 2010.
■
Credit Card: We now expect industry credit card losses to reach 9.0% in 4Q09,
up from 7.3% at the end of 2008. Losses should improve modestly yet remain
elevated in 2010. We expect industry balances to grow 0-2% in 2009, given
reduced availability of credit and industry consolidation.
■
Auto: Used car values should remain under pressure in the coming months given
weak employment figures, low consumer confidence, and high new vehicle
inventories. Margins on new originations will also be greatly impacted by the
challenging financing markets. Credit quality deteriorated in 2008 and will likely
remain weak throughout 2009.
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Student Lending: The student lending industry faced another challenging year in
2008 as liquidity was constrained in both the core FFELP and private lending
markets. Government efforts should provide some relief in at least one of these
areas in 2009. Second, increasing support for the Direct Loan Program,
particularly from the Democratic Congress and White House, could present
additional risk to the FFELP industry in 2009.
■
We have also included earnings previews for the Specialty Finance Universe. We
are also establishing 2010 EPS estimates and realigning target prices for
American Express (TP $20, old: $22) and MasterCard (TP $175, old: $200).
Table of contents
Economic Outlook 3
Credit Cards 4
Networks 9
Auto Finance 13
Student Lending 15
Commercial Finance 17
Government Initiatives 19
Cramdown Legislation 19
Term Asset Liquidity Facility (TALF) 19
Earnings Previews 21
American Express Co. (AXP) 22
4Q Earnings Preview; Establishing 2010 EPS 22
Discover Financial Services (DFS) 24
Modifying 2009 EPS; Establishing 2010 24
MasterCard, Inc. (MA) 26
4Q Earnings Preview; Establishing 2010 EPS 26
Visa Inc. (V) 28
Fiscal 1Q Earnings Preview 28
CompuCredit Corp. (CCRT) 30
4Q Earnings Preview 30
CapitalSource Inc. (CSE) 32
4Q Earnings Preview 32
CIT Group (CIT) 34
4Q Earnings Preview; Establishing 2010 EPS 34
AmeriCredit Corp. (ACF) 36
Fiscal 2Q Earnings Preview 36
Nelnet Inc. (NNI) 38
4Q Earnings Preview; Establishing 2010 EPS 38
SLM Corp (SLM) 40
4Q Earnings Preview; Establishing 2010 EPS 40
Disclosures 43
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