Consumption outlook worsening; we
expect negative sales psm in H2
However, aggressive store expansion
and improving margins should support
bottom line growth
Lotte Shopping our top pick in Korean
retail sector, with superior 08e clean
EPS growth of 25% for 13x PE
Korean retail outlook poor for H2. The Big 3 Korean
retailers reported strong results for Q1 2008, despite a
significant drop in consumer sentiment. However, we think
that growth will deteriorate due to tough comps, global
economic uncertainty and high inflation. We forecast
negative sales psm growth in H2. See page 3.
However, Korean retailers should still be able to
progress, driven by store area and margin expansion. We
analyse and compare growth, margins and return metrics of
Lotte Shopping, Shinsegae and Hyundai Department Store
Co (HDS). See page 6 and 8.
Lotte Shopping top pick in Korean retail sector, with
highest top and bottom line growth of peers. We expect the
company to begin to harvest the investment made in 2007
this year, and forecast 25% clean EPS growth y-o-y. The
stock is still cheap trading at only 0.99x NAV. We reiterate
our Overweight rating with an upgraded target price of
KRW436,000, representing 23.4% total return. See page 12.
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