汇丰银行：英国零售行业研究报告2009年2月

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􀀗 H2 will see progressive margin pain
􀀗 Environment inhibits pass-through
to consumers
􀀗 Home Retail (UW(V), TP 195p from
200p) easily the worst placed, in our
view. We change ratings on three
stocks and TPs on five.
Whilst the industry’s sales data continues to confound many
observers (on the upside), we believe the margin costs of
maintaining the sort of demand seen in January are
unsustainable. However this note focuses on another bear in
the cupboard – the impact of the collapse of sterling against
the dollar. This is broadly not an issue for the sector’s
electrical and entertainment retailers. However it is a major
issue for the rest. Generally hedging expires by midsummer,
and then retailers face effective prospective
increases of up to 30% in their bought-in product costs.
There are two obvious avenues of relief: to make suppliers
absorb this, or to pass the increases on to customers. There is
plenty of stress already in the supply chain, and we are very
sceptical as to whether price rises in the UK market will
stick without material volume declines.
One company stands out as being substantially more
exposed than any other, in our view: Home Retail. We
assess the gross f/x hit as being equivalent to 180% of our
current 2009/10 PBT forecast. With Argos attempting to be a
price leader in its categories, and encumbered with the
catalogue pricing model, it is poorly placed. Home Retail
remains therefore our prime Underweight (V) in the sector.
We are also moving Marks & Spencer to Underweight (V)
from Neutral (V) (TP 224p, previously 227p), as another
sufferer, and one which has seen recent share price strength.
We believe the f/x issue will encourage it to examine
whether its residual commitment to its “Full Service
Vendor” business model is still appropriate.
We move Next to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V) (TP
1340p, previously 1170p), as it faces a lesser threat than
does M&S, and its discount to Marks and the sector looks
overdone to us. We raise Kingfisher to Neutral (V) from
Underweight (V) (TP128p, previously 125p) – currency
issues are modest.
Overall we believe the f/x issue will be a major factor in
drawing the sector’s premature recovery to a close.

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