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The mortgage market is in disarray.
Loan approvals for house purchases
fell 50% year on year in April and
average house prices fell 4.4% in the
year to May
Arrears are rising, although analysis
of securitisation vehicles suggests
they are largely confined to
specialist mortgage lending so far
However, the BoE credit-conditions
survey indicates the banking
industry itself is now anticipating a
broader rise in mortgage and
corporate defaults
Despite this outlook, corporate loan
growth accelerated in Q1 2008 with
balances up 18% y-o-y; real estate
lending remains a significant driver
A mixed message on margins
Published data send a mixed message on margins.
Fixed-rate mortgage spreads are up by 100bp to 120bp
from a year ago, with noticeable differentiation
developing on pricing for higher loan-to-value products.
Savings spreads have narrowed
In contrast, savings spreads look to have narrowed in
recent months, presumably in part a reflection of greater
competition for funding. We estimate household sightdeposit
spreads have tightened by 35bp from mid-2007.
Spreads also appear to be narrower in corporate lending,
where the cost of funding has risen faster than banks can
re-price their loan books.
A cautious stance
It’s difficult to forecast what impact the failing housing
market will have on the broader economy, but the
auguries don’t read well. Both business and consumer
confidence surveys show weakening trends. It appears
to be just a matter of time before we begin to see real
deterioration in corporate credit quality and get some
indication of the duration and depth of any downturn.
As a result, we believe it’s right to retain a cautious
stance on the UK banking sector.
Hong Kong: lending fine, liabilities less so
The mortgage market remains resilient (volumes up 9%
y-o-y in April) with declining levels of arrears. Margins
appear to have been broadly maintained so far. But we
would caution that savings rates in Hong Kong are now
virtually zero, so further falls in interest rates may
squeeze spreads. Finally we’d highlight the decline in
mutual fund sales, down 19% y-o-y.
目录
Economic environment 4
Housing market 5
Mortgage volumes 7
Buy-to-let (BTL) and
mortgage equity withdrawal
(MEW) 8
Unsecured lending 9
Corporate lending 10
Credit quality expectations
survey – Bank of England 11
Savings 12
Unemployment and personal
bankruptcies 13
Mortgage credit quality 14
Household credit quality 15
Personal unsecured credit
quality 16
Corporate credit quality 17
General insurance 19
Product pricing 20
Product spreads 21
Investment banking 23
Hong Kong SAR industry
trends 25
United States – Industry
trends 27
Valuation – PE relatives 30
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