汇丰银行--巴西银行业研究报告2007年2月

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Declining interest rates, rising
disposable incomes, and steady
economic growth all point to another
year of solid credit growth in Brazil
􀀗 We believe that concerns about big
interest margin declines are overdone;
we expect modest declines in spreads
to be offset by lending volumes
􀀗 We are initiating coverage of Unibanco
and Banco Itaú with Overweight ratings,
and Banco do Brasil and Banco
Bradesco with Neutral (V) ratings
We expect further lending growth following the 425bps
decline in the benchmark Selic rate since the start of 2006. We
expect Brazilian loan growth for 2007 to be comfortably in the
double digits, driven by retail demand, as well as SMEs.
Brazilian banks have re-rated, but we believe that there is
further scope for upside potential based on fundamentals.
We are initiating coverage of Unibanco – our top pick – and
Banco Itaú with Overweight ratings. In our view, they are
solid plays on retail lending prospects and have potential for
improved cost efficiencies. For Unibanco, we are
establishing an end-2007 target price of BRL28 per unit,
equal to USD134 per GDR, suggesting 39% USD upside
potential. For Itaú, which should extract synergies from the
BankBoston acquisition, we are setting an end-2007 target
price of BRL102, equal to USD48.50 per ADR, implying
28% USD upside potential.
We are initiating coverage of Banco do Brasil (BB) and
Banco Bradesco with Neutral (V) ratings. BB has made
strides in consumer lending penetration and efficiency gains,
but we believe that the earnings drag from directed lending to
agriculture will persist. For BB, we are setting an end-2007
target price of BRL83 per share, equivalent to USD39.50,
implying 20% USD upside potential. Bradesco faces adverse
sentiment in relation to noise regarding its Banco Postal
franchise; otherwise, its core operations in banking and
insurance appear strong. For Bradesco, we are establishing an
end-2007 target price of BRL106 per unit, equivalent to
USD50 per ADR, suggesting 22% USD upside potential.

目录

Investment summary 3
Industry overview 7
Company sections 17
Unibanco 18
Banco Itaú 26
Banco do Brasil 335
Banco Bradesco 443
Disclosure appendix 551
Disclaimer 554

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