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Despite recessionary fears, political
support for clean energy and action on
climate change remains strong
A reaffirmed EU commitment at the end
of 2008 will be followed by the proposed
USD825bn American Recovery and
Reinvestment Plan, in which clean
energy will be central
Highlighted stocks: Iberdrola
Renovables (Overweight (V), TP
EUR3.50), and EDF EN
(Overweight (V), TP EUR30)
The Green Leap Forward
Last year ended with the European Union agreeing the
world’s largest climate package, with renewable energy
emerging as the main winner. The baton of climate
leadership now passes to the US, where clean energy is
expected to form a prominent part of President Barack
Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan. This
will reinforce the USD432bn that has already been
committed to climate change themes in 15 national and
regional stimulus packages. We expect the climate
dimensions of government recovery packages will become
more marked in 2009 – not least as governments move to
make a positive contribution to a global climate agreement at
Copenhagen in December.
We would expect these policies will act a positive stock market
trigger, especially for the wind sector. However, in the short
term, the availability of project finance remains a major
stumbling block, with growth expectations rapidly deteriorating
as developers find it more difficult to obtain financing. From a
stock market perspective, we therefore expect the sector may
well underperform in early Q1 2009 and possibly into Q2 2009,
against a backdrop of weak corporate news flow and challenged
project finance markets, but we expect a strong rebound
thereafter. Our favoured stocks are Iberdrola Renovables
(Overweight (V), target price EUR3.50), and EDF EN
(Overweight (V), target price EUR30).
目录
Passing the Baton 3
A climate of recession? 3
Greening the recovery 4
EU still a climate leader (just) 5
The ‘green-collar’ president 8
India gets strategic 10
China deepens its efforts 11
Negotiating a global deal 12
Global Renewable Energy 14
Investment summary and conclusion 14
H2 2008 review 14
2009 outlook – the finance conundrum 15
2009 outlook for wind 16
2009 outlook for solar 16
Sector valuation 17
Stock screen 17
High conviction ideas 17
Iberdrola Renovables: Overweight (V), TP: EUR3.50 18
EDF Energies Nouvelles: Overweight (V), TP: EUR30 19
Disclosure appendix 21
Disclaimer 25
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