德意志银行:以色列企业集团研究报告2009年1月

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21 January 2009
Israel Profit
2009: what could go right?
what could go wrong?
Dan Harverd
Research Analyst
(+972) 3 710-2019
dan.harverd@db.com
Richard Gussow
Research Analyst
(+972) 3 710-2046
richard.gussow@db.com
A tough year - but outperformers could emerge
With the economic slowdown deepening, 2009 is looking to be an increasingly
difficult year. Shares that should perform relatively well are those that we view as
defensive, such as high-yielding stocks and companies in recession-resistant
sectors. We also favor companies seeking acquisitions that can benefit from
lower acquisition prices. Our top picks are Teva, Bezeq, Mizrahi, Elbit Systems
and Delek Automotive (replaces Israel Chemicals).
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Market Update
Top picks
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA.OQ),USD42.41 Buy
Mizrahi Tefahot Bank (MZTF.TA),ILS19.90 Buy
Bezeq (BEZQ.TA),ILS6.06 Buy
Delek Automotive (DLEA.TA),ILS23.82 Buy
Elbit Systems (ESLT.TA),ILS184.00 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Maintaining a defensive stock strategy, while looking for positive total return
In this report, we look at the companies in DB's Israeli coverage universe and ask
three simple questions: What could go right? What could go wrong? And what is
priced in? By identifying the main potential stock drivers and where investor
expectations currently lie, we believe that even in a challenging market
environment, our top stock picks should provide a positive total return in 2009
Still in a bear market
Our central view is that we are still in a bear market and we expect to see the Tel
Aviv stock market test new lows by mid-year. This assessment is based on our
expectation that economic data will continue to point to a deteriorating macro
environment. However, our base case is for the local economy to recover in 2010.
As confidence grows regarding an improved 2010 outlook, we would expect
better stock market performance in the latter part of the year, though see it as
premature now to call the timing of the end of the bear market.
When recovery is in sight, banking sector should be a strong performer
In previous economic downturns, the financial sector led the recovery. We
believe that if expectations grow of a recovery in 2010 during the course of this
year, then the banking sector could be a strong performer in 2H09. We still see it
as premature to take a positive stance on the sector, but with P/BV multiples at
close to all-time lows, the downside risk would currently appear limited.
Who could benefit from the slowdown?
Some companies have the potential to emerge from the slowdown in a stronger
position than when they went in. Acquisitions could be cheaper, and companies
seeking acquisitions could therefore benefit. Companies in a position to take
advantage of the economic environment in order to capture market share will have
an advantage. Efficiency measures are crucial to maintaining profitability during a
slowdown, and those companies with effective programs will have an easier time
weathering the storm. Finally, companies with good cash positions can buy back
their debt at depressed prices, lowering borrowing costs. We see Teva
(acquisitions), Mizrahi (opportunity to capture market share) Strauss (acquisitions,
efficiency measures) and Gazit Globe (acquisitions, cash flow focus) as companies
with the potential to come out of this environment in a stronger position. See
individual company pages (pp.14 onwards) for more detail on valuation and risks.

Table of Contents
A challenging year ahead.................................................................. 3
Macroeconomic view........................................................................ 6
Bank Hapoalim (Hold) ..................................................................... 14
Bank Leumi (Hold) ........................................................................... 17
Bezeq (Buy) ...................................................................................... 20
Cellcom (Hold) ................................................................................. 23
Check Point (Buy) ............................................................................ 26
Delek Automotive (Buy).................................................................. 29
Delek Group (Hold).......................................................................... 32
Elbit Systems (Buy) ......................................................................... 35
Israel Chemicals (Hold) ................................................................... 38
Israel Corporation (Hold) ................................................................ 41
Israel Discount Bank (Hold) ............................................................ 45
Makhteshim Agan (Buy).................................................................. 48
Mizrahi Tefahot (Buy)...................................................................... 51
Nice Systems (Hold)........................................................................ 54
Osem (Hold) ..................................................................................... 56
Partner (Hold)................................................................................... 59
Strauss Group (Hold)....................................................................... 62
Teva (Buy)......................................................................................... 65

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