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Much of what we had come to learn about investing in financial company credit was radically
redefined in 2008
The size and breadth of government intervention has been impressive but the two biggest problems –
home price depreciation and militant mark-to-market accounting – have not been sufficiently
addressed, in our view
The operating backdrop for financials is as challenging as any time at least since the early 1980s and
it is difficult to rule out just about any scenario; stabilization feels like it is at least a year away
Remarkably, the sector was able to raise sufficient capital and then some, albeit with the
government’s help, to plug holes blown through balance sheets by massive losses
Fundamental performance for the financials is likely to range in 2009 from meaningfully impacted,
but still profitable, to downright abysmal, which will keep the financial system part of the problem
and not part of the solution
Consumer lending is likely to be the most significant problem in 2009, although the commercial real
estate will continue to weaken and we expect to see deterioration pick up in commercial & industrial
lending, which has held up reasonably well thus far
Many market-sensitive businesses are likely to significantly impacted and will be a shadow of their
former selves, as risk taking has moved to the sidelines.
Technical factors are a mixed bag with nationalization (as long as it stops short of an AIG-style
takeover) and reduced new issue supply as positives, offset by the influence of rating agencies,
auditors, and regulators, who are all heavily incentivized, in our opinion, to err on the side of
conservatism
We are cautious on the large, consumer-heavy banks, especially those that also will be burdened with
big investment banks. We feel better about regional banks. We are wary of specialty finance names.
We are comfortable down in the capital structure on only the most durable names
目录
A Look Back – Lessons Learned 3
The Backdrop – Dominoes still
falling 6
Current State of Play – The Higher
the Climb, the Harder the Fall 12
Technical Factors – A Mixed Bag 17
Valuation – Balancing meltdown
with nationalization 20
Company profiles
American Express 24
Bank of America 25
Citigroup 26
CIT Group 27
Capital One 28
General Electric Capital Corp 29
Goldman Sachs 30
J. P. Morgan Chase 31
Morgan Stanley 32
SLM Corp. 33
Wells Fargo 34
Appendix 35
Disclosure appendix 45
Disclaimer 51
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