汇丰银行：中国铝行业研究报告2009年1月

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􀀗 At current aluminium prices, few in the
industry are currently making money
􀀗 As we wait for demand to resurface, a
mountain of inventory continues to
grow. Deeper output cuts are required
􀀗 Remain UW (V) Chalco and Hindalco,
downgrade Alumina Ltd to N (V) and
keep Nalco at N (V)
A mountain of stock to clear. There has been a sharp
deterioration in aluminium demand over recent months with
few signs that things will get any better in the near term.
Suppliers have responded with output cuts totalling 5mt
(13% of production) but inventories continue to surge. While
China is trying its best to kick-start demand with State
Reserve Bureau purchases and a massive fiscal stimulus, in
our view, what’s required is a significant pickup in real
underlying demand, or more significant additional cutbacks.
We downgrade aluminium price forecasts by 22% for 2009
to US70c/lb and 25% for 2010 to US75c/lb.
Industry to post losses in 2009, expect significant
consensus downgrades. With the exception of the Indian
producers, we expect all companies under our coverage to
swing into losses in 2009 as reduced output and lower prices
crush earnings. We have cut EPS by over 70% on average
for 2009e and over 40% for 2010e. We are below consensus
for all stocks but most significantly for Chalco.
Remain UW (V) Chalco and Hindalco. We remain UW
(V) Chalco as we believe that a profit warning is likely in the
near term and see consensus moving to a loss for 2009. We
keep an UW (V) on Hindalco given its North American
exposure and stretched balance sheet. While Alumina Ltd
should remain cash positive, we think a loss and a cut in
dividend is likely in 2009 (downgrade to N (V) from OW
(V)). In order to ride out the current storm, we prefer Nalco
N (V) given its net cash position and low cost operations.

目录

Investment thesis 4
HSBC aluminium model 10
Company Summaries 17
Chalco – No where to run 18
Hindalco – Turbulent times 22
Nalco – The calm in the storm 25
Alumina Ltd – Dividend at risk 28
Appendix: China Statistics 33
Disclosure appendix 40
Disclaimer 45

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