汇丰银行：全球资本货物行业研究报告2009年1月

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􀀗 Our Global capex composite lead indicator
flatlined (-100) once again in December, following
the small bounce in November (-93)
􀀗 Regional summary: all three regional capex-led
indicators (Americas, EMEA, APAC) fell in
December and all three remain below their
12-month moving average trendlines, in outright
negative territory
􀀗 Industry summary: all five global industry capex
lead indicators fell in December; all five are now
below their 12-month moving average trendlines,
in outright negative territory
Black Christmas
Our monthly global chart book covers no fewer than 13 distinct global
capex cycles which collectively are the drivers behind Capital Goods
sector revenue growth. Our global composite lead indicator hit rock
bottom again this month (an index score of -100), which only happens
when all components are recording 4th quartile values in a 10-year
historical perspective. This last happened in October, but before that we
would have to go back to May 2002: MSCI Capital Goods performance
bottomed five months later in Asia-Pacific and six months later in the
Americas (and globally) but had already bottomed seven months
previously in Europe. The bear market Industrials rally that ensued in
Europe proved premature and Capital Goods underperformed again in
2002 (the 2002 relative lows being coincident with lows in other regions);
but the relative lows of 2001 were never re-tested.

目录

Black Christmas 3
Charting the outlook for global 3
capex, industry by industry 3
Drilling down: by region 5
Drilling down: by subsector 6
Three key stock picks 8
General sector indicators 11
Americas 12
EMEA 13
Asia Pacific 14
Manufacturing 15
Americas 16
EMEA 17
Asia-Pacific 18
Construction 19
Americas 20
EMEA 21
Asia-Pacific 22
Transport 23
Commercial vehicles 24
Aerospace 25
Shipping 26
Process industries 27
Oil & Gas 28
Mining 29
Chemicals 30
Utilities 31
Americas 32
EMEA 33
Asia Pacific 34
Global sector coverage 35
Stock coverage 36
Revenue exposure 40
Summary data 42
Valuation data 50
Financials 58
Financials in USD 66
Consensus estimates 74
HSBC vs Consensus 78
Company profiles 86
Disclosure appendix 126
Disclaimer 131

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2009-1-25 01:31:00 上传

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