瑞士信贷：亚洲保险行业研究报告2009年2月

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Insurance in Asia
SECTOR REVIEW
Regional outlook: the pendulum effect
■ We expect 2009 to bring continued volatility for insurers as markets
move like a pendulum between deflation fears and reflation optimism.
■ Against a backdrop of falling interest rates and heightened deflation
concerns, we believe P&C insurers are more attractive in 1H09 given
their superior balance sheet flexibility and upside risk to operating
earnings. Looking beyond 1H09, life insurers will look increasingly
attractive as evidence emerges of easing economic contraction risks
and a firm bottom in interest rates and equity market cycles.
■ Our top picks in early 2009: In the P&C sector, we like PICC, LIG
Insurance and Insurance Australia Group. In the life insurance sector,
we are generally more cautious although we prefer China to Taiwan
given China’s superior capital strength, cleaner balance sheets and
proportionately lower legacy book risks. Within China, we prefer Ping
An to China Life given Ping An’s cheaper valuation and stronger
premium growth outlook.

Regional outlook: the pendulum
effect
Sector outlook
We expect range-bound trading and high volatility in Asian insurance share prices in 1H09
as sentiment swings like a pendulum between deflationary fears and reflation optimism.
Deflation fears may limit upside potential for life insurers in 1H09 given the potential
contraction in investment spreads caused by falling interest rates and lower asset prices.
However, looking into 2H09, we expect the life insurance sector to recover. Our base-case
expectation is that prolonged deflation will be averted by the monetary and fiscal initiatives
of central banks around the world. Hence, we believe a sustained rebound in life insurance
share prices (breaking out of the pendulum effect) depends on a stabilisation of economic
growth, interest rates and asset prices.
We believe the P&C sector stacks up relatively well in an environment where deflationary
fears are dominating. Investment asset leverage is lower, portfolios are positioned
conservatively, and the operational earnings outlook is resilient with gains in underwriting
profitability expected to offset the impact of weaker investment returns (lower bond and
deposit yields). Most importantly, P&C insurers have greater balance sheet flexibility than
life insurers. This reflects the absence of financial guarantees and the fact that policies are
renewed on fresh pricing, with terms and conditions renewed on an annual basis.
Stock picks: in the short term we prefer P&C
Until deflation fears are well and truly behind us, we believe the combination of improving
operating earnings outlook and balance sheet flexibility support a preference for P&C
insurers over life insurers. Our preferred exposures in the P&C sector are PICC, Insurance
Australia Group and LIG Insurance.
In the life insurance sector, the difficult economic backdrop supports an approach that
favours quality over value. This means a preference for Chinese firms over their
Taiwanese counterparts, despite what appears to be a significant valuation gap. Within
China, we prefer Ping An to China Life as we do not believe the ‘quality gap’ (balance
sheet strength, growth outlook) is really as large as Ping An’s valuation discount suggests.
In Taiwan, we are cautious generally but believe Cathay FHC is built on more solid
foundations than Shinkong FHC.

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