瑞士信贷：美国医疗行业研究报告2009年2月

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MedTech Analyzer
SECTOR REVIEW
Feb 2009: The Expectations Game
■  "Is it or isn’t it priced into the stock?" was a question that was often asked
over the past six weeks. Preceding or coinciding with the JP Morgan
Healthcare Conference in January, several MedTech companies negatively
pre-announced. When the companies ultimately reported the lower results,
some of the stocks had sharp moves on the upward leading one to believe
expectations were too low. Though there were other stocks, like ZMH, where
expectations were low and moved even lower. For the most part, we think
the macro concerns are fairly priced into the stocks. In our view, the great
risk for the stocks is the recovery of the market as people anticipate the
benefits of the stimulus package and move out of defensive names.
■  When all the dust settled, the S&P 500 Healthcare Equipment & Supply
stocks ended January in positive territory (up 5.3%) versus the S&P (down
8.6%). On a year-to-date basis, MedTech is up 8.2%; the S&P is down 3.8%.
■  There are two key events in February to closely watch. First, we expect
Medtronic to report its earnings on February 17 or 18. We expect the quarter
to be weak driven by continued weakness in ICDs, spine, and stents, along
with some economic pressures across its diabetes, surgical navigation
businesses. Second, the American Academy of Orthopedic Conference
(AAOS) will be held on March 25-April 1 and should provide insights on
market trends and physician sentiment towards Zimmer.
■  We feel most comfortable with EW (Outperform) and COV (Outperform). We
are most cautious on SYK (Neutral) given our view on the capex and
orthopedic environments. We also are cautious on MDT (Neutral) in the
near-term given their earnings results are likely to be disappointing. ZMH
(Neutral) may be a candidate for the “to watch” list as we think the stock has
likely bottomed given the valuation, but believe in near term upside is
capped until market share stabilizes.

Table of contents
A Quick Look Back At Stock Performance 3
Our Views On The Stocks 4
4Q08 Earnings Takeaways 6
What’s Ahead in 2009 8
A Closer Look At Stock Performance 13
S&P 500 Sector Performance 14
S&P 500 Healthcare 15
MedTech Individual Stock Performance 19
MedTech Valuations 23
Sector Screens “Cheap” (But Don’t They All?) 24
Hot Topics 28
Foreign Exchange Rate Movements Adds Volatility 29
Macro Economic Spill Over Effects Evident 33
The M&A Environment: Bye Bye In-Process R&D Charges 36
The Political/Reimbursement Environment 39
Company Profiles 43
Bard (BCR-Neutral) 44
Baxter International (BAX-Neutral) 55
Becton Dickinson (BDX-Neutral) 72
Boston Scientific (BSX-Neutral) 87
Covidien (COV-Outperform) 100
Edwards Lifesciences (EW-Outperform) 113
Medtronic (MDT-Neutral) 124
Nanosphere (NSPH-Outperform) 140
St. Jude Medical (STJ-Neutral) 145
Stryker (SYK-Neutral) 157
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH-Neutral) 168
Major Product Categories 180
Cardiac Rhythm Management (CRM) 181
Coronary Stents 187
Heart Valves 194
Orthopedics 200
Blood Plasma Market 205
Glossary 206

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