Fox-Pitt：美国信用卡行业研究报告2009年2月

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US Equity Research February 12, 2009
US Credit Cards Marketweight
Analyst(s): Bill Carcache, CFA, CPA / Stephanie Efron bill.carcache@fpk.com 212 857 6134
January Credit Card Trust Data Preview & Analysis of Trends
• We Expect the Major Credit Card Issuers to Release January Trust Data on Tuesday, February 17. The major
credit card issuers will likely release January data at various points throughout the day. We provide our forecast of
January charge-offs in Exhibit 2. We also highlight where our EPS estimates stand relative to consensus in Exhibit 1.
• We Are Lowering Our Estimates Ahead of the Trust Data to Reflect More Rapid Macro Deterioration. We are
raising our base case peak unemployment assumption to 9.0% from 8.5% and are adjusting our EPS estimates
accordingly. For American Express, our 2009 EPS estimate goes to $0.42 (from $0.53) and 2010 goes to $0.80 (from
$0.92). For Capital One, our 2009 EPS estimate goes to a loss of $0.40 (from $1.21) and 2010 goes to $1.24 (from
$3.19). For Discover, our 2009 EPS estimate goes to a loss of $0.75 (from a loss of $0.74) and 2010 goes to $0.42
(from $0.45).
• We Are Below Consensus for Amex, Capital One, and Discover. With our 2009 EPS estimates below consensus
for Amex ($0.42 FPKe vs. $1.12 consensus), Capital One (-$0.40 FPKe vs. $0.44 consensus), and Discover (-$0.75
FPKe vs. -$0.03 consensus), we would generally expect shares to trade lower if net charge-offs come in above our
forecast.
• American Express (AXP-$16.36-Outperform): We Expect January Charge-offs to Come in at 7.53%. We would
expect the consensus to move lower (i.e., closer to us) if charge-offs come in around our estimate of 7.53%. We would
expect a figure north of this to pressure shares. Actual results for the month are typically released by around mid-day.
• Capital One (COF-$13.51-In Line): We Expect January Charge-offs to Come in at 7.45%. We would expect the
consensus to move lower (i.e., closer to us) if charge-offs come in around our estimate of 7.45%. We would expect a
figure north of this to pressure shares. Capital One is the only issuer that provides monthly credit data on a managed
basis; therefore, our forecast is on a managed basis. Actual results for the month are typically released by roughly
6:00AM.
• Discover (DFS-$7.21-Outperform): We Expect January Charge-offs to Come in at 6.84%. We would expect the
consensus to move lower (i.e., closer to us) if charge-offs come in around our estimate of 6.84%. We would expect a
figure above this to pressure shares. Actual results for the month are typically released by around mid-day.
• We Expect to Follow-Up with a Review of Actual Results. We will review actual results as soon as they are
released, and we will highlight the impact of any differences versus our EPS estimates.
• We Also Analyze Key Trust Data Trends and Compare to Results on a Managed Basis. We also use historical
monthly credit card trust data to identify various trends across the major card issuers at both the individual company
level as well as on a relative basis. Areas we examine include portfolio yields, charge-offs, delinquencies, and excess
spreads. We also evaluate differences between monthly trust data and quarterly managed basis data.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
JANUARY CREDIT CARD TRUST FORECAST.......................................................................................................... 4
WE ARE LOWERING EPS ESTIMATES AHEAD OF TRUST DATA........................................................................ 4
NET CHARGE-OFF RATE FORECAST FOR JANUARY ......................................................................................... 5
HOW WE USE MONTHLY TRUST DATA................................................................................................................. 5
TRUST DATA ANALYSIS BY CARD ISSUER............................................................................................................. 6
AMERICAN EXPRESS............................................................................................................................................. 6
CAPITAL ONE.......................................................................................................................................................... 8
DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES........................................................................................................................ 9
BANK OF AMERICA .............................................................................................................................................. 11
CITIGROUP ........................................................................................................................................................... 12
J.P. MORGAN CHASE........................................................................................................................................... 14
PEER GROUP COMPARISONS ............................................................................................................................... 16
CHARGE-OFFS ..................................................................................................................................................... 16
TOTAL DELINQUENCIES...................................................................................................................................... 16
PORTFOLIO YIELD ............................................................................................................................................... 17
AVERAGE EXCESS SPREAD............................................................................................................................... 17
PAYMENT RATE ................................................................................................................................................... 17
MANAGED VERSUS TRUST DATA.......................................................................................................................... 19
AMERICAN EXPRESS........................................................................................................................................... 19
CAPITAL ONE........................................................................................................................................................ 19
DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES....................................................................................................................... 20
BANK OF AMERICA .............................................................................................................................................. 21
CITIGROUP ........................................................................................................................................................... 21
J.P. MORGAN CHASE........................................................................................................................................... 22
APPENDIX................................................................................................................................................................. 23
AMERICAN EXPRESS EARNINGS MODEL .......................................................................................................... 23
CAPITAL ONE EARNINGS MODEL ....................................................................................................................... 24
DISCOVER EARNINGS MODEL ............................................................................................................................ 25

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