FOX PITT：北欧银行业研究报告2009年2月

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Nordic Banks
Analyst: Geoff Dawes, CFA geoff.dawes@fpk.com +44 20 7663 6041
Margins, losses, capital
• The three things that matter to Nordic banking. Margins, losses and capital are central to the investment
view for the Nordic banks. We see all three as intimately connected, particularly on the downside. Balance
sheet strength is the key driver of all three through funding costs, loan losses, capital destruction and riskweighted
assets cyclicality.
• Margins improving but not for all. For the first time this cycle, Nordic margins are increasing for the
system. Higher margins are necessary to increase the profitability buffer against the inevitable rise in bad
debts. However, success levels vary. Nordea, SHB and Danske Bank have been able to improve margins
significantly. SEB and Swedbank are struggling. Margins are trending down for both due to funding
disadvantage.
• Breaking down balance sheet quality. Provisions rose sharply across the board in 4Q08. Over 2008, the
focus was on the ‘known’ problems on the books: Baltics, Ireland, Ukraine. We see the ‘potential’ problem
areas as more significant in 2009-10 and all the Nordic banks are exposed. Credit quality has held up for
Nordic real estate, Nordic corporate and shipping assets. Underwriting quality by bank matters for these
portfolios.
• Defending capital. With higher losses and greater uncertainty, the need for capital is amplified on both
counts. All the Nordic banks announced capital measures with 4Q08 results, ranging from modest dividend
cuts (SHB) to dividend cancellation and equity raising (SEB). Risk weighting of customer loans is at an alltime
low, and this must change. We run a series of stress tests and see Nordea as the most resilient to the
varied impacts of balance sheet deterioration (i.e. higher losses, higher risk-weighted assets).
• Upgrading Nordea, downgrading SHB. We upgrade our rating on Nordea from In Line to Outperform, and
moderate our longstanding cautious stance on the Nordic region. With capital, Nordea has the opportunity
to increase the core profitability of its franchise at the expense of peers and has the greatest resilience to
asset quality deterioration. We downgrade our rating on Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB) from Outperform to
In Line. We expect it to continue outperforming on credit quality but now see risks skewed to the downside.
Any credit disappointment and the sub-6% core Tier 1 ratio will come sharply in to focus. We have an
Outperform rating on DnB NOR; Underperform ratings on SEB and Swedbank and an In Line rating on
Danske Bank.

Table of contents
Three steps to Nordic Banking .............................................................................................................................. 4
It’s all connected.............................................................................................................................................................4
How much capital is adequate?......................................................................................................................................5
Raise Nordea to Outperform, cut SHB to In Line ............................................................................................................6
Improving the profitability buffer ........................................................................................................................... 7
Margins improving but not for all banks..........................................................................................................................7
The market perspective ................................................................................................................................................10
How to improve margins...............................................................................................................................................11
More uncertainty on losses post 4Q08................................................................................................................ 12
A 4Q08 loan loss shocker.............................................................................................................................................12
Breaking down the problem areas................................................................................................................................13
Worries for 2009 ...........................................................................................................................................................14
Raising equity, defending capital ........................................................................................................................ 17
Gearing up only just ending..........................................................................................................................................17
Arguments against RWAs ............................................................................................................................................19
Common or preferred? .................................................................................................................................................20
Bringing it together: testing for capital stress ................................................................................................... 21
Stress test details .........................................................................................................................................................22
Updated financial forecasts and investment theses.......................................................................................... 23
Danske Bank ................................................................................................................................................................24
DnB NOR......................................................................................................................................................................26
Nordea..........................................................................................................................................................................28
SEB ..............................................................................................................................................................................30
Svenska Handelsbanken..............................................................................................................................................32
Swedbank.....................................................................................................................................................................34

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