摩根大通:美国食品饮料行业研究报告2009年2月

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2009 CAGNY Preview
Back to Boca
Food & Food Manufacture
Terry BivensAC
(1-212) 622-0326
terry.bivens@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Beverages, Household Products
and Personal Care
John FaucherAC
(1-212) 622-6443
john.faucher@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Global Tobacco
Erik Bloomquist, CFAAC *
(44-20) 7325-9917
erik.a.bloomquist@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
Restaurants
John IvankoeAC
(1-212) 622-6487
john.ivankoe@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Smid-Food and Protein
Ken GoldmanAC
(1-212) 622-0359
kenneth.goldman@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
SMid-Beverages, Household
Products and Personal Care
Dara Mohsenian, CFAAC
(1-212) 622-6542
dara.mohsenian@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules
See page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Returning to sunny Boca Raton, FL, for the second consecutive year is the
CAGNY (Consumer Analysts Group of New York) Conference. This note
previews the presentations of companies that will be presenting and offers useful
financial comparisons. In each company preview, we guide investors to our
expectations for presentation content and important questions to ask management.
• Food. We expect many discussions to focus on pricing power – look for
companies across the board to defend their abilities to hold pricing in the face of
lower input costs. We also anticipate numerous conversations about the threat
(or lack thereof, in certain cases) from private label competitors. And we hope
to gain further insight into recent trade deloading from retailers.
• Beverages. We expect the focus of PepsiCo’s presentation to be on the snacks
business, with details on the pricing and volume architecture in 2009, in the
context of easing ag costs as we exit a year of unprecedented pricing increases.
PBG will likely focus on its ability to improve the NA market in light of its
recent product restage with PepsiCo. We expect KO and CCH to focus on the
consumer environment internationally. We expect both presentations to
highlight where there are geographic regions of strength as well as more
challenging areas and what they are doing to address these challenges as well as
what realistic expectations will be for 2009.
• Household Products, Cosmetics and Personal Care. We expect HPC
companies to focus their discussions on long-term strategies, pricing power, and
the easing cost (advertising, raw materials) environment. We think companies
will be cautiously optimistic regarding their outlooks for CY09, as they will still
be dealing with a tough macro-economic environment, but will also benefit
from lower commodity costs. We expect companies to reiterate their view that
the majority of pricing they have taken should stick, although we think that
promotional spending will increase somewhat.
• Global Tobacco. We expect a primary focus for both PM and MO
presentations will be brand building: for PM with respect to its new Marlboro
brand architecture and for MO with respect to its newly acquired smokeless
business UST. We also expect both companies to address the headwinds they
face. PM’s includes the ability to increase pricing and mitigate negative mix if it
occurs and for MO, how to deal with a very challenging tax environment.

Table of Contents
Presentation Schedule.............................................................3
Financial Comparisons ............................................................4
General Mills (GIS)..................................................................13
ConAgra (CAG).......................................................................14
Kraft (KFT)...............................................................................15
Sara Lee (SLE) ........................................................................16
Philip Morris International (PM).............................................17
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) ..............................................19
Smithfield (SFD)......................................................................20
Kellogg (K) ..............................................................................21
Altria (MO) ...............................................................................22
Campbell Soup (CPB) ............................................................24
Heinz (HNZ) .............................................................................25
Fortune Brands (FO) ..............................................................26
McCormick (MKC)...................................................................27
Procter & Gamble (PG)...........................................................28
PepsiCo (PEP) ........................................................................29
Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) ..................................................30
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) ............................................................31
Clorox (CLX) ...........................................................................32
Coca-Cola Hellenic (CCH)......................................................33
Sysco (SYY) ............................................................................34
Church & Dwight (CHD) .........................................................35
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) ..........................................................36
Coca-Cola (KO).......................................................................37

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