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雷达卡
Natural Resources and Energy
Global Steel
Global steel outlook
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We expect steel production to contract
by 7.2% globally in 2009e as economic
weakness spreads in all regions,
followed by growth of 3.6% in 2010e
Supply cuts have been swift and
decisive, and we expect to see the
trough in Q1 2009. Growth rates could
turn positive by Q4 2009 at the latest
We see room for further steel price
declines once lower raw material
contracts have been concluded
This report replaces the one of the same title and date to
correct the disclosure section.
Bad but not unprecedented
We expect 2009 to be the low point in the cycle, with global
crude production down 7.2% y-o-y, split into falls of 3.4% for
China and 9.4% for ROW. Production cuts are already close to
trough levels seen in the mid-1970s/early 1980s, which we take
as a sign that we are close to the bottom. We see no parallels
with the 1930s experience. For 2010 we expect a mild
production rebound of 3.6% (China 4.7%, ROW 2.8%).
Based on existing and announced projects, we still expect
capacity growth of 3.5% in 2009e and 4.1% in 2010e, which
would make 2009 the first year since 2005 in which capacity
outgrows demand.
We assume further downside risk for steel prices, as expected
raw material price declines of 30% in iron ore and 60% in
coking coal will partly accrue to customers, which are in an
excellent position to negotiate lower prices. We estimate annual
price declines of 43% y-o-y for HRC and 49% y-o-y for rebar.
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