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Japan Markets Shaken as Investors Seek Shelter
Yield on benchmark government bond drops into negative territory for the first time
By PETER LANDERS
Updated Feb. 9, 2016 2:05 a.m. ET
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TOKYO—Japanese stocks fell more than 5% and the yield on the benchmark government bond dropped into negative territory for the first time, twin signs of a flight to safety that threatened to undermine the nation’s slow recovery under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year government bond was yielding minus 0.025%, meaning investors were willing to lend the Japanese government money for 10 years and get back less than they put in.
It was the most dramatic consequence yet of the Bank of Japan’s decision late last month to introduce negative interest on certain funds that commercial banks deposit at the central bank. The decision has pushed down yields for both short- and longer-term bonds.
“I think investors will likely test how far the yield can go down,” said Daiwa Securities strategist Yukio Ishizuki. He cited speculation that the Bank of Japan would push interest rates further into negative territory, a step BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said he is prepared to take.
Meanwhile, the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average closed Tuesday down 5.4%, falling 918.86 points to finish at 16085.44, sparked by fears of a global economic slowdown. The percentage drop was the largest since June 2013. And the Japanese yen, which is often seen by investors as a haven in times of turmoil, rose against the U.S. dollar. One dollar bought about 114.80 yen in afternoon trading in Tokyo, compared with more than ￥120 just after the BOJ’s negative-rate move last month.
Financial stocks were especially hard-hit because of concerns about global financial stability. Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., closed down 8.7%, and the nation’s largest brokerage, Nomura Holdings Inc., lost 9.1%.
Hitoshi Ishiyama, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management, said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate increase in December was still rippling through markets and creating fears about tighter money, which drove down crude-oil prices.
“Slower demand and oversupply alone don’t explain those tumbles,” Mr. Ishiyama said. Crude prices “are taking a hit from a major shift in monetary policy.”
Low interest rates could help Japan’s economy by making it easier for businesses and the government to borrow. Japan’s enormous government debt, at more than 200% of gross domestic product, hasn’t deterred investors from piling into government bonds.
But for the moment, the negative consequences of the market upheaval predominate. Until recently, the weak yen has powered Japanese corporate profits, in part by making the dollars they earn overseas worth more in yen. Now profits are likely to shrink, and the weak stock market may deter companies from giving employees raises during wage negotiations that are getting under way this month.
The government said on Monday that real wages declined 0.9% in 2015, the fourth straight year of decline. Shrinking wages have kept consumers cautious and prevented the virtuous cycle that Mr. Abe has sought to get the economy out of its two-decade-long sluggishness.
Next week, Japan is set to announce its gross domestic product figures for the October to December quarter. The median forecast of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal is for contraction of 1.2%, which would be the second contraction in three quarters.
The Bank of Japan might ease further if the yen continues to strengthen, according to Norinchukin Research Institute Chief Economist Takeshi Minami. Still, he said recent global market turbulence has been driven by anxiety over the world’s economic prospects, meaning that action by a single central bank would likely have only a fleeting impact. Also, the U.S. wouldn’t necessarily welcome a move from Japan to intentionally weaken the yen, he said.
Finance Minister Taro Aso expressed concern about the stronger yen, calling the rapid currency movements “rough.”
—Hiroyuki Kachi, Takashi Nakamichi and Kosaku Narioka contributed to this article.
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