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LCD looks enticing in the near term
Buoyant LCD backed by set makers’ inventory build-up and cost
competitiveness
In the near to mid term, we have positive views on domestic LCD makers as their
main competitors in Taiwan have not been aggressively expanding supplies
because of the plunge in panel price (they are making EBITDA loss at current
panel price levels) and difficulties with sourcing raw materials. One concern is
that the potential rise in utilization rates coupled with demand growth slowdown
due to widened inventories could create another supply glut in 2H09. Still, we
recommend investors focus more on the limited downward pressure on panel
prices and domestic panel makers’ shipment increase. In all, we maintain LG
Display (034220, BUY, TP: W32,000) as our top pick.
Premature to expect improvement in DRAM supply-demand conditions
It seems premature to anticipate a cyclical turnaround of the DRAM market.
Considering the drastic employment cuts in the US (down nearly 3mn YoY vs.
1.5mn recorded in the last economic downturn in 2001), the FY09 PC demand
could contract more drastically than forecast. If the YoY growth in DRAM demand
slows to 15.7% (as it did in 2001) and the YoY supply growth comes in at 19.1%
as forecast, this could create a supply glut. Considering these potentially adverse
market conditions, we sustain a conservative view on Hynix (00060, HOLD, TP:
W8,000).
Domestic handset makers continue to consolidate market control
We forecast that Samsung Electronics (SEC) and LG Electronics (LGE) will
continue to expand their footprint in the global handset industry, given 1) that
Motorola and Sony Ericsson are suffering more seriously than expected; 2) SEC
and LGE have relatively small exposure to emerging markets where demand is
weakening fast; and 3) they now have more time to reinforce their smartphone
line-up amid a slowdown in smartphone market growth. Although concerns are
growing over the contraction of the handset market in the short term, we believe
the expansion of their market share should be priced in longer term. We maintain
our positive view on LGE (066570, BUY, TP: W102,000).
Contents
Investment Summary 3
I. DRAM Industry Unlikely to Recover Quickly 4
II. LCD Supply-Demand Balance to Continue in 1H09 7
III. Solid North America and Europe vs. Flagging Emerging Markets 9
Company Analysis
LG Display (034220.KS, BUY, TP: W32,000) 13
Databook
I. Semiconductor 18
II. Display 30
III. Handset 60
IV. PC & Components 70
V. Stock Performances 74
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