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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月泰国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：BNP百富勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Solid 1Q10 property demand should continue as the economy picks up.
􀂃 However, the flow of new supply does raise some concerns.
􀂃 NEUTRAL on sector on mediocre growth outlook but undemanding P/E.
􀂃 BUY selectively; PS and LPN remain our top sector picks.
Over-optimism the risk
Very strong housing demand so far
Property demand so far in 1Q10 has been very solid and we estimate presales
growth of 110% y-y and 16% q-q for the five leading developers we cover. In fact,
robust presales momentum since 2Q09 led to presales growth of 35% last year
even though Thailand was in recession. The catalysts for this growth were pentup
demand, new launches pending during 4Q08-1Q09 and demand driven by tax
benefits. After the tax breaks end, demand will likely slow but momentum should
be sustained as the economy recovers. We forecast 10% industry demand growth
in 2010 and 17% presales growth for the five firms under our coverage.
Some concern on the supply side
Developers seem to be bullish on the demand outlook this year. The five leading
developers plan for 107 projects valued at THB128b, up 92% y-y. About 60% of
the new supply is scheduled for 2H10, so we’ve begun to get a little concerned
about a demand-supply mismatch in some segments. But this isn’t a major worry
over the near term as we still hope that the big developers will continue to gain
market share. Barriers to entry are difficulties in obtaining bank funding for those
new to the business and growing demand for franchise names.
NEUTRAL on residential property
We have a NEUTRAL stance on the residential property sector given our concern
over the demand-supply situation and what we see as a mediocre growth outlook.
We project sector profit growth of 11% in 2010, below our forecast for the SET’s
due to the expiry of government property tax incentives. In 2011, there will still be
the full-year impact of no tax breaks so our projection for profit growth of 8% is
lower than that for sales growth. Nevertheless, the sector’s valuation looks
undemanding at 2010E P/E of 9.8x versus the SET’s 12.3x.
Our top picks remain PS and LPN
Our stock recommendations remain unchanged with PS and LPN our top sector
picks. PS offers the strongest EPS growth prospects at a 15% three-year CAGR.
We upgrade our TP for PS by 15% to THB23.00. LPN’s prospects look safe with
84% and 72% of revenues in 2010-11E secured by backlog. We estimate LPN’s
three-year EPS CAGR growth at 13%, the second highest in the sector, while its
prospective dividend yield is the highest at 6.6% and 8.0% in 2010-11E. We boost
our TP by 11% to THB10.00. AP is a BUY as it’s now the cheapest, on our
estimates, at 7.2x 2010E P/E while it has a huge backlog. QH is still a HOLD and
we continue to assign a REDUCE call to LH.
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