摩根大通：亚洲消费品行业研究报告2009年2月

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Regional Consumer: Our top
picks among defensives
Stick to staples and "sin" stocks in Korea, Malaysia
and India
Consumer
Vineet Sharma, CFAAC
(852) 2800-8523
vineet.k.sharma@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Jinah LeeAC
(82-2) 758-5723
jinah.lee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited
Latika Chopra, CFAAC
(91-22) 6639 3014
latika.chopra@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Nicole GohAC
(60-3) 2270-4702
nicole.sy.goh@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.
(18146-X)
See page 44 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
• We write this note for those who expect 2009 to be a repeat of 2008 and
seek to own defensives with downside protection. We have run two
screens on our Regional Consumer universe: stocks that offer the highest
dividend yields in 2009 and stocks that had the strongest outperformance
in 2008. The first list can be discarded: DPS is closely linked to earnings
and we think there could be substantial downside to yields for some of
the names that crop up.
• But the second list offers interesting perspective. It is almost exclusively
dominated by Staples and Sin stocks from India, Korea and Malaysia.
This does not surprise us. We have long argued that Staples in general
and Tobacco, Alcoholic Beverages and Regulated Gaming stocks in
particular (Sin Universe) are strong defensives to own in falling markets,
particularly in markets where they have dominant market share and
consequent pricing power. But we would stay away from Staples in
China where fragmented market share leads to limited pricing power.
• We discuss in this note the reason for outperformance for these names in
2008 and whether that outperformance can be repeated this year, if their
respective markets stay lackluster. We note that most of these names go
into 2009 with cheaper P/Es as their earnings outpaced their price
appreciation in 2008. Commodity deflation (particularly against the
backdrop of record prices in 1H08) should help substantially on the
margin front.
• Our top defensive picks in the region are KT&G, Kangwon Land, and
LGH&H in Korea; HUL and ITC in India; and BAT and Berjaya Sports
Toto in Malaysia. Most of these names figure in the list of top
outperformers in 2008, and for some we believe 2009 could get even
better with input price deflation.

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