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Traffic Volumes Show Export
Regions Hardest Hit
December traffic volume stats confirmed our view that
export-exposed regions would see the sharpest drop in
traffic volumes, as both Hopewell Highway (HOLD, TP
HK$4.31) and Shenzhen Expressway (HOLD, TP HK$3.25)
saw traffic volumes that were below expectations. With
exports not likely to rebound soon, we maintain our HOLD
calls for both counters.
On the other hand, Anhui Expressway, with its road assets
in central China, which are less dependent on exports,
reported better than expected traffic volumes for
December. At less than 8x earnings and offering more
than 10% yield, we believe Anhui’s valuations are
attractive, especially as we think traffic volumes should
continue to be resilient. Maintain BUY, TP HK$3.98.
Meanwhile, both Jiangsu Expressway (BUY, TP HK$7.19)
and Zhejiang Expressway (BUY, TP HK5.70) reported
December traffic volumes that were largely in line with
expectations, seeing some moderate impact from lower
export activities in the region. Still, these two companies
were less affected from expectations than their southern
counterparts. We continue to like Jiangsu Expressway and
Zhejiang Expressway for their strong cash flows, defensive
earnings profile and decent dividend yields of c. 5%.
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