发帖
雷达卡
20 February 2009
European Oil Services
Pit stop February
Christyan Malek
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 58249
christyan.malek@db.com
Lucas Herrmann, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73636
lucas.herrmann@db.com
Jonathan Copus
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 51202
jonathan.copus@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
AMEC Plc (AMEC.L),GBP558.50 Buy
Saipem (SPMI.MI),EUR12.82 Buy
Companies featured
Acergy (ACY.OL),NOK39.70 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 1.20 1.24 1.25
P/E (x) 18.9 4.5 4.5
EV/DACF (x) 17.5 1.9 1.6
Aker Solutions (AKSO.OL),NOK34.25 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (NOK) 8.42 5.51 10.28
P/E (x) 17.8 6.2 3.3
EV/DACF (x) 15.3 3.3 1.8
AMEC Plc (AMEC.L),GBP558.50 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (GBP) 27.46 41.29 52.53
P/E (x) 22.6 13.5 10.6
EV/EBITA (x) 9.1 4.8 3.4
Lamprell (LAM.L),GBP90.75 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 0.43 0.48 0.47
P/E (x) 15.9 2.7 2.8
EV/DACF (x) 14.0 0.6 0.1
Petrofac (PFC.L),GBP449.75 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 0.56 0.77 1.07
P/E (x) 16.1 8.3 6.0
EV/DACF (x) 9.2 5.3 3.0
Saipem (SPMI.MI),EUR12.82 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 1.32 1.57 1.58
P/E (x) 18.8 8.2 8.1
EV/DACF (x) 15.0 6.3 6.7
Seadrill Limited (SDRL.OL),NOK62.40 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 0.78 1.20 3.24
P/E (x) 24.7 7.4 2.7
EV/EBITA (x) 23.1 13.0 4.9
Subsea 7 (SUB.OL),NOK37.95 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 1.28 1.48 1.84
P/E (x) 17.0 3.6 2.9
EV/DACF (x) 9.4 2.2 1.3
Technip (TECF.PA),EUR25.61 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (EUR) 4.23 3.42 2.78
P/E (x) 10.8 7.5 9.2
EV/DACF (x) 4.5 1.3 1.2
Tecnicas Reunidas S.A. (TRE.MC),EUR22.69 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 1.93 2.64 2.83
P/E (x) 22.9 8.6 8.0
EV/DACF (x) 18.9 5.6 4.3
John Wood Group PLC (WG.L),GBP211.00 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (USD) 0.35 0.46 0.48
P/E (x) 19.3 6.6 6.3
EV/DACF (x) 11.6 4.5 4.6
Global Markets Research Company
Key messages
We continue to believe that the longer-term capex trends required to grow
production in line with a demand recovery consistent with our commodities team
outlook remains intact. However, the next 12 months (at the very least) should see
reduced activity on final investment decisions as both NOC/IOCs choose to
conserve cash and (rightly) observe their cost base dissipate before re-tendering.
We remain selective across the oil chain and our preferred industries centre on
those that offer impressive structural characteristics within the services chain
supported by unique data sourced from WM. Ultra-deep water drilling remains our
highest conviction theme.
New additions to this month’s Pit Stop include: calculations on potential M&A
scenarios across the oil service group (we pick 11 combinations) and an oil
services ‘score sheet’ that depicts how companies should differentiate in the
context of an industry that is set to become more challenging mid-term.
Top picks
Amec (PT, 760p): Sector-leading backlog longevity (implies superior earnings
visibility relative to peer group) and management’s track record in restructuring the
company which gives it one of the most ‘lean’ and operationally efficient business
models. This should see higher absolute margin realisation vs. its peers and leaves
it well disposed in a tougher pricing environment going forward. A cash position
(excluding pre-payments) that represents 40% of its market cap provides Amec
with one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector and places it in good stead
to make an M&A deal that exploits current depressed equity valuations across the
oil service group.
Saipem (PT, E15): Key characteristics that in our opinion differentiate amongst the
peer group include: i) sector-leading NOC exposure in addition to its portfolio
diversification (exploration and E&C) provides continued earnings visibility and
momentum across 2008-10 (company also has one of the highest average
contract lives in the peer group), ii) robust balance sheet: despite its relatively high
gearing, Saipem is able to rely on continued financial backing from ENI (owns 43%
of the equity of the group), which limits the liquidity risk significantly, iii) sector
leading lump sum contract exposure arguably offers better ‘protection’ against
price deflation and margin contraction vs. (cost plus based) peers, iv) excellent
execution track record should reduce the probability of negative earnings
surprises.
Table of Contents
Performance & valuation .................................................................. 3
The companies................................................................................... 6
Company drivers/strengths, catalysts and risks........................................................................6
Company targets and outlook .................................................................................................11
Directors’ share dealings ................................................................ 13
Directors’ share dealings timeline...........................................................................................14
The companies compared............................................................... 16
Contract strategy trends................................................................. 19
Contract synopses........................................................................... 21
Asset overviews............................................................................... 31
Valuation and Risks......................................................................... 42
Risks ......................................................................................................................................42
Potential M&A scenarios ................................................................ 43
Assumptions behind calculations............................................................................................43
Acergy and Subsea 7 ..............................................................................................................44
Technip and Acergy ................................................................................................................45
Technip and Subsea 7.............................................................................................................46
Saipem and Technip................................................................................................................47
Saipem and Acergy.................................................................................................................48
Saipem and Subsea 7 .............................................................................................................49
Amec and Petrofac .................................................................................................................50
Petrofac and Wood Group ......................................................................................................51
Seadrill and Pride ....................................................................................................................52
Transocean and Seadrill ..........................................................................................................53
Amec and Wood Group ..........................................................................................................54
Appendix A: Financial calendar ...................................................... 55
Appendix B: List of countries/NOCs that have a default lump sum
strategy ............................................................................................ 56
Appendix C: Directors’ share dealings........................................... 57
301516.pdf
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